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Solutions to Chapter 14 Exercises
UNSOLVED EXERCISES
U1. (a) The diagram is shown below:
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
(b) The effectiveness condition specifies the minimum value of q for the United States that
(c) The acceptability condition specifies the combination of p and q for which the United
(d) See diagram below:
(e) For values of p < 3/13, the dire threat of certainty of war is acceptable to the United
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
(f) In this case, if Kennedy believed p to be in the range from 1/3 to 1/2, then the analysis
suggests that not even brinkmanship could be successful against the Soviets. This contrasts starkly with
U2. (a) The scene can be seen as an example of the dynamic game of brinkmanship. Both
parties, by persisting in their actions—Gutman in his torture, and Spade in his defiance—are raising
(b) Each side risked death either in battle, or after court-martial for mutiny or
disobeying orders. With each successive preparation for battle the crew of the Potemkin and the
crews of the tsarist ships increase the probability that they will be able to defend themselves in case
U3. (a) THE END OF APARTHEID IN SOUTH AFRICA
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
By the end of the 1980s it was clear to almost all interested parties that the days of apartheid and
of white minority rule in South Africa were numbered. The only questions were whether the end would
The ruling National Party represented the Afrikaners (whites of Dutch and Huguenot origin); its
membership ranged from extreme hard-liners, who opposed any move toward black majority rule and
would be willing to fight for their cause, to more pragmatic people, who were willing to negotiate a deal
If the negotiations failed, especially if they failed visibly, then the situation would be much worse
than if no negotiations had taken place at all, and armed conflict would probably occur, about whose
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
President Willem de Klerk made a major speech “placing our country irrevocably on the road to
drastic change” and released Nelson Mandela from prison in February 1990. But it took almost two more
years to overcome many suspicions within and between the various parties for the formal constitutional
Mandela made the breakthrough by suggesting an all-party congress to negotiate the way to an
elected assembly. The first meeting of this congress led to a heated exchange between de Clerk and
Mandela. The acrimony continued in detailed negotiations in small groups, and finally the congress
In the meantime, progress was made in secret negotiations between a pair of younger leaders,
Roelf Meyer for the government and Cyril Ramaphosa for the ANC. A Negotiating Council was
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
This did not quite end the crisis. There were several violent incidents that threatened the new
(b) PEACE IN NORTHERN IRELAND
This case may be thought of as an example of the reverse—or perhaps the remedy—of
brinkmanship. Where brinkmanship is the creation and deployment of a probabilistic threat, a
On April 10, 1998, the Good Friday Agreement (also known as the Belfast Agreement) was
signed by the representatives from the governments of the United Kingdom and the Republic of
Peace was not everyone’s goal, nor did it serve everyone’s interest. The radical parties of
each side, as well as their associated paramilitary wings, stood to lose power and influence, not to
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
Even the more mainstream parties that had endorsed the Good Friday Agreement often had
difficulty staying the course. David Trimble, a unionist who served as first minister in the
Over time some of the paramilitaries on both sides slowly came around. In July 2002 the IRA
apologized for civilian deaths during its campaign of violence. In February 2003, Protestant groups
After nine years of incremental progress punctuated by breakthroughs and setbacks in
almost even measure, the more hard-line Protestant and Catholic parties—the Democratic
U4. (a) THE U.S. BUDGET CONFRONTATION OF 1995
In the midterm elections of 1994, the Republicans won a majority in both houses of Congress.
The Republican success was generally attributed to the leadership of Newt Gingrich and the “Contract
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
The budget proposed by President Bill Clinton in fall 1995 differed substantially from the
Republicans’ intentions, both in its total size and its allocation among items, most importantly welfare and
In mid-November the Republicans secured the passage of two stopgap bills (a continuing
resolution to keep the government operating at the current levels of funding for a specified time and a bill
After a few days another stopgap measure was passed that allowed the government to operate
(b) THE TELEVISION WRITERS’ STRIKE OF 2007–2008
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
From August through October 2007 the Writers Guild of America (WGA)—the union
representing 12,000 writers of scripts for television shows and movies—sat in heated negotiations
As the deadline on Halloween 2007 loomed, each side seemed self-assured of the
superiority of its negotiating position. Both the WGA and the AMPTP thought that it was better
The strike began on November 5, 2007. Writers immediately ceased all work and began
picketing in front of studios in Los Angeles and New York. The first shows hit were late-night
The strike continued for 100 days, until February 13, 2008. Though this wasn’t as long as
the five months that the previous writers strike lasted in 1988, it cost both sides significantly. Not
Games of Strategy, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2015 W. W. Norton & Company
sympathized with the plight of the writers. Even after the strike ended and new episodes started
airing again in April and May 2008, the major networks’ viewership was down 9% below the levels
from one year earlier, which in turn translated into lower advertising revenues. The decline in
