3. One-Period Decisions
1. A dilemma facing many retailers is how to handle seasonal goods. They cannot be sold at full
markup after season and cannot rush through a seasonal order to cover high demand.
2. Newsboy problem.
a. Step 1: List different demand levels and probabilities.
b. Step 2: Develop a payoff table that shows the profit for each purchase quantity,
, at
each assumed demand level,
.
• Each row in the table represents a different order quantity and each column represents a
different demand.
• The payoff for a given quantity-demand combination depends on whether all units are
sold at the regular profit margin during the regular season, which results in two
possible cases.
If demand is high enough
, then all of the cases are sold at the full profit
margin,
, during the regular season
( )( )
pQ== quantity Purchaseunitper Profit Payoff
If the purchase quantity exceeds the eventual demand
units are
sold at the full profit margin, and the remaining units purchased must be disposed
of at a loss,
( )
( )
DQlpD −−=
−
=seasonafter of
disposedAmount
unit
per Loss
Demand
season during
soldunit per Profit
Payoff
c. Step 3: Calculate the expected payoff of each
by using the expected value decision
rule. For a specific
, first multiply each payoff by its demand probability, and then add
the products.
d. Step 4: Choose the order quantity Q with the highest expected payoff.
3. One-Period Decisions. Use Solved Problem 3 to demonstrate the use of a pay-off table to
make one-period inventory decisions.
4. Tutor C.3 in MyLab Operations Management provides a new example to practice the
one-period inventory decision.
5. Active Model C.3 in MyLab Operations Management provides additional insight on the
one-period inventory decision model and its uses.