Exercise 7-5: Hot Pizza
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week Demand
1108 596 9112
2116 6119 10 102
3118 796 11 92
4124 8102 12 91
Alpha =
0.1
Period
Demand
Level Forecast
EtAtBias MSE MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE TS
0106
1108 106 106 -2 2-2 4 2 2 2 -1.00
2116 107 106 -10 10 -12 50 6 8 5 -2.00
3118 108 107 -11 11 -23 72 8 9 6 -3.00
4124 110 108 -16 16 -38 116 10 13 8 -4.00
596 108 110 14 14 -25 131 10 14 9 -2.35
6119 110 108 -11 11 -35 128 10 9 9 -3.35
796 108 110 14 14 -22 136 11 14 10 -1.98
8102 108 108 6 6 -15 123 10 6 9 -1.50
9112 108 108 -4 4-20 112 10 4 9 -2.06
10 102 107 108 6 6 -14 104 9 6 9 -1.49
11 92 106 107 15 15 2116 10 17 9 0.15
Demand
ERRORS
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
ERRORS
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Unit Demand
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Actual Demand Forecasted Demand