Exercise 7-2: Hot Pizza
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week Demand
1108 596 9112
2116 6119 10 102
3118 796 11 92
4124 8102 12 91
Period
Demand
Level Forecast
EtAtBias MSE MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE TS
1108
2116
3118
4124 106
596 117 106 10 10 10 107 10 11 11 1.00
6119 114 117 -3 3 8 57 6 2 11 1.22
796 114 114 18 18 25 140 10 18 11 2.51
8102 109 114 12 12 38 142 11 12 11 3.53
9112 103 109 -3 334 116 9 3 11 3.75
10 102 107 103 1 1 36 97 8 1 11 4.53
11 92 103 107 15 15 51 116 917 11 5.71
12 91 102 103 12 12 63 120 913 11 6.76
13 102 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 11.61
Demand
EtAtBias MSE MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE TS
13 104 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 12.82
ERRORS
MOVING AVERAGE
80
90
100
110
120
130
12345678910 11 12 13 14 15 16
Unit Demand
Periods
Moving Average Actual Demand Forecasted Demand
Calculate
Errors
1.
Reformat
data
Graph
Using Moving
Average