Simulation for Winner Apparel (two orders in the season)
Product
Sale Price,
p
Sourcing
cost, c
Net salvage
value, s
Mean Demand
over first cycle,
μ1
SD of
Demand over
first cycle, σ1
Optimal
Service Level
Optimal
Order Size
Expected final
overstock
Expected final
understock
Expected
Profit
SD of Profit
Trendy 100.00$ 42.00$ 20.00$ 200 177 72.50% 305 114 34 21,010$ 13,483
Basic 50.00$ 31.50$ 20.00$ 500 141 61.67% 541 69 41 17,219$ 3,684
Responsiveness premium = 1.05
Trendy Basic
Average 34 114 42,830 21,820 21,010 41 69 50,066 32,848 17,219
First cycle
demand
Overstock Understock First cycle sales Second order
Starting
inventory
Second cycle
demand
Second cycle
sales
Final
understock
Final
overstock
Total
Revenue
Total cost Profit
Starting
Inventory
First cycle
demand
Overstock Understock First cycle sales
Second
order
Starting
inventory
Second cycle
demand
Second cycle
sales
Final understock Final overstock
Total
Revenue
Total cost Profit
305 45 260 45 45 305 404 305 99 35,000 14,700 20,300 541 598 57 541 598 541 550 598 9 56,950 35,878.5 21,072
305 15 290 15 15 305 124 124 181 17,520 13,440 4,080 541 226 315 226 226 541 404 404 137 34,240 24,160.5 10,080
305 341 36 305 341 305 304 340 1 64,520 27,132 37,388 541 594 53 541 594 541 279 332 262 48,890 35,752.5 13,138
305 252 53 252 252 305 290 290 15 54,500 23,394 31,106 541 389 152 389 389 541 481 481 60 44,700 29,295.0 15,405
305 183 122 183 183 305 432 305 127 48,800 20,496 28,304 541 493 48 493 493 541 650 541 109 51,700 32,571.0 19,129
305 389 84 305 389 305 50 134 255 49,000 29,148 19,852 541 638 97 541 638 541 479 576 62 57,090 37,138.5 19,952
305 525 220 305 525 305 0 220 305 58,600 34,860 23,740 541 710 169 541 710 541 714 710 173 62,550 39,406.5 23,144
305 390 85 305 390 305 193 278 112 60,540 29,190 31,350 541 383 158 383 383 541 483 483 58 44,460 29,106.0 15,354
305 529 224 305 529 305 385 529 80 83,400 35,028 48,372 541 844 303 541 844 541 398 701 143 64,960 43,627.5 21,333
305 151 154 151 151 305 0 305 21,200 19,152 2,048 541 489 52 489 489 541 417 417 124 47,780 32,445.0 15,335
305 207 98 207 207 305 213 213 92 43,840 21,504 22,336 541 577 36 541 577 541 408 444 133 51,910 35,217.0 16,693
305 0 305 305 93 93 212 13,540 12,810 730 541 775 234 541 775 541 408 642 133 61,810 41,454.0 20,356
305 276 29 276 276 305 69 69 236 39,220 24,402 14,818 541 617 76 541 617 541 440 516 101 54,870 36,477.0 18,393
305 116 189 116 116 305 208 208 97 34,340 17,682 16,658 541 552 11 541 552 541 558 552 17 54,650 34,429.5 20,221
305 335 30 305 335 305 502 335 197 64,000 26,880 37,120 541 545 4 541 545 541 736 545 195 54,300 34,209.0 20,091
305 148 157 148 148 305 223 223 82 38,740 19,026 19,714 541 473 68 473 473 541 358 358 183 45,210 31,941.0 13,269
305 114 191 114 114 305 489 305 184 41,900 17,598 24,302 541 588 47 541 588 541 693 588 152 56,450 35,563.5 20,887
305 362 57 305 362 305 57 114 248 46,860 28,014 18,846 541 614 73 541 614 541 627 614 86 57,750 36,382.5 21,368
305 422 117 305 422 305 555 422 250 72,700 30,534 42,166 541 424 117 424 424 541 589 541 48 48,250 30,397.5 17,853
305 85 220 85 85 305 390 305 85 39,000 16,380 22,620 541 547 6 541 547 541 556 547 15 54,400 34,272.0 20,128
305 248 57 248 248 305 123 123 182 40,740 23,226 17,514 541 666 125 541 666 541 418 543 123 56,660 38,020.5 18,640
305 22 283 22 22 305 0 305 8,300 13,734 (5,434) 541 417 124 417 417 541 368 368 173 42,710 30,177.0 12,533
305 0 305 305 69 69 236 11,620 12,810 (1,190) 541 640 99 541 640 541 502 601 39 57,880 37,201.5 20,679
305 272 33 272 272 305 190 190 115 48,500 24,234 24,266 541 627 86 541 627 541 367 453 174 53,180 36,792.0 16,388
305 109 196 109 109 305 307 305 2 41,400 17,388 24,012 541 270 271 270 270 541 546 541 5 40,550 25,546.5 15,004
305 0 305 305 192 192 113 21,460 12,810 8,650 541 504 37 504 504 541 537 537 4 52,130 32,917.5 19,213
305 0 305 305 389 305 84 30,500 12,810 17,690 541 663 122 541 663 541 461 583 80 57,800 37,926.0 19,874
305 168 137 168 168 305 66 66 239 28,180 19,866 8,314 541 511 30 511 511 541 197 197 344 42,280 33,138.0 9,142
305 0 305 305 0 305 6,100 12,810 (6,710) 541 476 65 476 476 541 543 541 2 50,850 32,035.5 18,815
305 82 223 82 82 305 273 273 32 36,140 16,254 19,886 541 674 133 541 674 541 311 444 230 53,850 38,272.5 15,578
305 392 87 305 392 305 46 133 259 48,980 29,274 19,706 541 382 159 382 382 541 272 272 269 38,080 29,074.5 9,006
305 61 244 61 61 305 154 154 151 24,520 15,372 9,148 541 275 266 275 275 541 489 489 52 39,240 25,704.0 13,536
305 0 305 305 0 305 6,100 12,810 (6,710) 541 473 68 473 473 541 402 402 139 46,530 31,941.0 14,589
305 81 224 81 81 305 88 88 217 21,240 16,212 5,028 541 550 9 541 550 541 439 448 102 51,490 34,366.5 17,124
305 0 305 305 178 178 127 20,340 12,810 7,530 541 365 176 365 365 541 382 382 159 40,530 28,539.0 11,991
305 288 17 288 288 305 130 130 175 45,300 24,906 20,394 541 596 55 541 596 541 253 308 288 48,210 35,815.5 12,395
305 198 107 198 198 305 391 305 86 50,300 21,126 29,174 541 526 15 526 526 541 575 541 34 53,350 33,610.5 19,740
305 360 55 305 360 305 127 182 178 52,260 27,930 24,330 541 720 179 541 720 541 473 652 68 61,010 39,721.5 21,289
305 178 127 178 178 305 15 15 290 25,100 20,286 4,814 541 448 93 448 448 541 642 541 101 49,450 31,153.5 18,297
305 187 118 187 187 305 309 305 4 49,200 20,664 28,536 541 444 97 444 444 541 345 345 196 43,370 31,027.5 12,343
305 182 123 182 182 305 173 173 132 38,140 20,454 17,686 541 552 11 541 552 541 308 319 233 47,660 34,429.5 13,231
305 270 35 270 270 305 312 305 7 57,500 24,150 33,350 541 262 279 262 262 541 734 541 193 40,150 25,294.5 14,856
305 112 193 112 112 305 264 264 41 38,420 17,514 20,906 541 515 26 515 515 541 379 379 162 47,940 33,264.0 14,676
305 361 56 305 361 305 222 278 83 59,960 27,972 31,988 541 403 138 403 403 541 480 480 61 45,370 29,736.0 15,634
305 117 188 117 117 305 117 117 188 27,160 17,724 9,436 541 515 26 515 515 541 436 436 105 49,650 33,264.0 16,386
305 301 4 301 301 305 285 285 20 59,000 25,452 33,548 541 630 89 541 630 541 642 630 101 58,550 36,886.5 21,664
305 251 54 251 251 305 379 305 74 55,600 23,352 32,248 541 340 201 340 340 541 558 541 17 44,050 27,751.5 16,299
305 476 171 305 476 305 326 476 21 78,100 32,802 45,298 541 928 387 541 928 541 405 792 136 69,370 46,273.5 23,097
305 589 284 305 589 305 357 589 52 89,400 37,548 51,852 541 678 137 541 678 541 431 568 110 57,650 38,398.5 19,252
305 367 62 305 367 305 310 367 5 67,200 28,224 38,976 541 553 12 541 553 541 312 324 229 47,830 34,461.0 13,369
305 0 305 305 266 266 39 27,380 12,810 14,570 541 288 253 288 288 541 535 535 6 41,270 26,113.5 15,157
305 154 151 154 154 305 321 305 16 45,900 19,278 26,622 541 426 115 426 426 541 752 541 211 48,350 30,460.5 17,890
305 507 202 305 507 305 186 388 119 71,680 34,104 37,576 541 382 159 382 382 541 620 541 79 46,150 29,074.5 17,076
305 549 244 305 549 305 291 535 14 84,280 35,868 48,412 541 745 204 541 745 541 818 745 277 64,300 40,509.0 23,791
305 204 101 204 204 305 141 141 164 37,780 21,378 16,402 541 578 37 541 578 541 290 327 251 48,420 35,248.5 13,172
305 124 181 124 124 305 0 305 18,500 18,018 482 541 671 130 541 671 541 635 671 94 60,600 38,178.0 22,422
305 477 172 305 477 305 495 477 190 78,200 32,844 45,356 541 371 170 371 371 541 442 442 99 42,630 28,728.0 13,902
305 43 262 43 43 305 572 305 267 34,800 14,616 20,184 541 354 187 354 354 541 596 541 55 44,750 28,192.5 16,558
305 17 288 17 17 305 42 42 263 11,160 13,524 (2,364) 541 699 158 541 699 541 619 699 78 62,000 39,060.0 22,940
In this simulation, we assume that the second order accounts for demand in the first cycle.
In other words, the second order is higher than the first order if demand in the first
cycle exceeded the available quantity. The excess order in this case is used to serve the
unmet demand from the first cycle. If there is excess inventory at the end of the first cycle,
the second order is reduced accordingly. In both cases, the available inventory at the
start of the second cycle is the same as the available inventory at the start of the first cycle.
305 244 61 244 244 305 317 305 12 54,900 23,058 31,842 541 642 101 541 642 541 544 642 3 59,150 37,264.5 21,886
305 298 7 298 298 305 164 164 141 49,020 25,326 23,694 541 543 2 541 543 541 366 368 175 48,950 34,146.0 14,804
305 335 30 305 335 305 59 89 246 44,320 26,880 17,440 541 713 172 541 713 541 441 613 100 59,700 39,501.0 20,199
305 381 76 305 381 305 176 252 129 58,280 28,812 29,468 541 481 60 481 481 541 604 541 63 51,100 32,193.0 18,907
305 165 140 165 165 305 323 305 18 47,000 19,740 27,260 541 453 88 453 453 541 382 382 159 44,930 31,311.0 13,619
305 68 237 68 68 305 174 174 131 26,820 15,666 11,154 541 439 102 439 439 541 437 437 104 45,880 30,870.0 15,010
305 191 114 191 191 305 416 305 111 49,600 20,832 28,768 541 373 168 373 373 541 318 318 223 39,010 28,791.0 10,219
305 207 98 207 207 305 326 305 21 51,200 21,504 29,696 541 833 292 541 833 541 683 833 142 68,700 43,281.0 25,419
305 0 305 305 322 305 17 30,500 12,810 17,690 541 503 38 503 503 541 568 541 27 52,200 32,886.0 19,314
305 259 46 259 259 305 580 305 275 56,400 23,688 32,712 541 559 18 541 559 541 291 309 250 47,500 34,650.0 12,850
305 173 132 173 173 305 427 305 122 47,800 20,076 27,724 541 402 139 402 402 541 505 505 36 46,070 29,704.5 16,366
305 81 224 81 81 305 119 119 186 23,720 16,212 7,508 541 632 91 541 632 541 677 632 136 58,650 36,949.5 21,701
305 256 49 256 256 305 0 305 31,700 23,562 8,138 541 608 67 541 608 541 508 575 33 56,460 36,193.5 20,267
305 420 115 305 420 305 391 420 86 72,500 30,450 42,050 541 587 46 541 587 541 634 587 93 56,400 35,532.0 20,868
305 212 93 212 212 305 281 281 24 49,780 21,714 28,066 541 438 103 438 438 541 477 477 64 47,030 30,838.5 16,192
305 79 226 79 79 305 373 305 68 38,400 16,128 22,272 541 698 157 541 698 541 525 682 16 61,470 39,028.5 22,442
305 138 167 138 138 305 245 245 60 39,500 18,606 20,894 541 399 142 399 399 541 576 541 35 47,000 29,610.0 17,390
305 429 124 305 429 305 210 334 95 65,800 30,828 34,972 541 385 156 385 385 541 608 541 67 46,300 29,169.0 17,131
305 153 152 153 153 305 83 83 222 28,040 19,236 8,804 541 600 59 541 600 541 551 600 10 57,050 35,941.5 21,109
305 260 45 260 260 305 276 276 29 54,180 23,730 30,450 541 518 23 518 518 541 368 368 173 47,760 33,358.5 14,402
305 63 242 63 63 305 183 183 122 27,040 15,456 11,584 541 373 168 373 373 541 562 541 21 45,700 28,791.0 16,909
305 0 305 305 62 62 243 11,060 12,810 (1,750) 541 468 73 468 468 541 652 541 111 50,450 31,783.5 18,667
305 63 242 63 63 305 392 305 87 36,800 15,456 21,344 541 475 66 475 475 541 331 331 210 44,500 32,004.0 12,496
305 53 252 53 53 305 364 305 59 35,800 15,036 20,764 541 587 46 541 587 541 572 587 31 56,400 35,532.0 20,868
305 236 69 236 236 305 144 144 161 41,220 22,722 18,498 541 501 40 501 501 541 459 459 82 49,640 32,823.0 16,817
305 195 110 195 195 305 377 305 72 50,000 21,000 29,000 541 534 7 534 534 541 606 541 65 53,750 33,862.5 19,888
305 89 216 89 89 305 185 185 120 29,800 16,548 13,252 541 686 145 541 686 541 651 686 110 61,350 38,650.5 22,700
305 71 234 71 71 305 317 305 12 37,600 15,792 21,808 541 462 79 462 462 541 511 511 30 49,250 31,594.5 17,656
305 434 129 305 434 305 164 293 141 62,620 31,038 31,582 541 480 61 480 480 541 638 541 97 51,050 32,161.5 18,889
305 336 31 305 336 305 255 286 50 60,100 26,922 33,178 541 312 229 312 312 541 623 541 82 42,650 26,869.5 15,781
305 343 38 305 343 305 404 343 99 64,800 27,216 37,584 541 468 73 468 468 541 534 534 7 50,240 31,783.5 18,457
305 413 108 305 413 305 115 223 190 56,600 30,156 26,444 541 204 337 204 204 541 374 374 167 32,240 23,467.5 8,773
305 336 31 305 336 305 0 31 305 39,700 26,922 12,778 541 511 30 511 511 541 581 541 40 52,600 33,138.0 19,462
305 62 243 62 62 305 144 144 161 23,820 15,414 8,406 541 514 27 514 514 541 395 395 146 48,370 33,232.5 15,138
305 381 76 305 381 305 241 317 64 63,480 28,812 34,668 541 464 77 464 464 541 266 266 275 42,000 31,657.5 10,343
305 102 203 102 102 305 0 305 16,300 17,094 (794) 541 511 30 511 511 541 559 541 18 52,600 33,138.0 19,462
305 249 56 249 249 305 78 78 227 37,240 23,268 13,972 541 594 53 541 594 541 663 594 122 56,750 35,752.5 20,998
305 466 161 305 466 305 414 466 109 77,100 32,382 44,718 541 289 252 289 289 541 565 541 24 41,500 26,145.0 15,355
305 419 114 305 419 305 194 308 111 63,520 30,408 33,112 541 433 108 433 433 541 554 541 13 48,700 30,681.0 18,019
305 4 301 4 4 305 197 197 108 22,260 12,978 9,282 541 320 221 320 320 541 521 521 20 42,450 27,121.5 15,329
305 61 244 61 61 305 447 305 142 36,600 15,372 21,228 541 537 4 537 537 541 642 541 101 53,900 33,957.0 19,943
305 358 53 305 358 305 372 358 67 66,300 27,846 38,454 541 479 62 479 479 541 437 437 104 47,880 32,130.0 15,750
305 462 157 305 462 305 172 329 133 66,060 32,214 33,846 541 370 171 370 370 541 572 541 31 45,550 28,696.5 16,854
305 278 27 278 278 305 276 276 29 55,980 24,486 31,494 541 495 46 495 495 541 415 415 126 48,020 32,634.0 15,386
305 555 250 305 555 305 160 410 145 74,400 36,120 38,280 541 490 51 490 490 541 497 497 44 50,230 32,476.5 17,754
305 537 232 305 537 305 425 537 120 84,200 35,364 48,836 541 462 79 462 462 541 345 345 196 44,270 31,594.5 12,676
305 199 106 199 199 305 453 305 148 50,400 21,168 29,232 541 500 41 500 500 541 730 541 189 52,050 32,791.5 19,259
305 718 413 305 718 305 369 718 64 102,300 42,966 59,334 541 840 299 541 840 541 490 789 51 67,520 43,501.5 24,019
305 391 86 305 391 305 169 255 136 58,720 29,232 29,488 541 628 87 541 628 541 503 590 38 57,310 36,823.5 20,487
305 252 53 252 252 305 0 305 31,300 23,394 7,906 541 472 69 472 472 541 361 361 180 45,250 31,909.5 13,341
305 270 35 270 270 305 194 194 111 48,620 24,150 24,470 541 625 84 541 625 541 635 625 94 58,300 36,729.0 21,571
305 121 184 121 121 305 2 2 303 18,360 17,892 468 541 588 47 541 588 541 488 535 53 54,860 35,563.5 19,297
305 425 120 305 425 305 234 354 71 67,320 30,660 36,660 541 617 76 541 617 541 101 177 440 44,700 36,477.0 8,223
305 125 180 125 125 305 542 305 237 43,000 18,060 24,940 541 661 120 541 661 541 382 502 159 55,330 37,863.0 17,467
305 416 111 305 416 305 240 351 65 66,900 30,282 36,618 541 692 151 541 692 541 880 692 339 61,650 38,839.5 22,811
305 233 72 233 233 305 271 271 34 51,080 22,596 28,484 541 449 92 449 449 541 414 414 127 45,690 31,185.0 14,505
305 75 230 75 75 305 444 305 139 38,000 15,960 22,040 541 581 40 541 581 541 395 435 146 51,720 35,343.0 16,377
305 358 53 305 358 305 335 358 30 66,300 27,846 38,454 541 274 267 274 274 541 372 372 169 35,680 25,672.5 10,008
305 350 45 305 350 305 487 350 182 65,500 27,510 37,990 541 529 12 529 529 541 446 446 95 50,650 33,705.0 16,945
305 234 71 234 234 305 116 116 189 38,780 22,638 16,142 541 609 68 541 609 541 551 609 10 57,500 36,225.0 21,275
305 424 119 305 424 305 576 424 271 72,900 30,618 42,282 541 381 160 381 381 541 512 512 29 45,230 29,043.0 16,187
305 454 149 305 454 305 239 388 66 70,620 31,878 38,742 541 594 53 541 594 541 415 468 126 52,970 35,752.5 17,218
305 178 127 178 178 305 240 240 65 43,100 20,286 22,814 541 484 57 484 484 541 584 541 43 51,250 32,287.5 18,963
305 230 75 230 230 305 447 305 142 53,500 22,470 31,030 541 699 158 541 699 541 494 652 47 60,590 39,060.0 21,530
305 119 186 119 119 305 372 305 67 42,400 17,808 24,592 541 419 122 419 419 541 478 478 63 46,110 30,240.0 15,870
305 370 65 305 370 305 171 236 134 56,780 28,350 28,430 541 657 116 541 657 541 654 657 113 59,900 37,737.0 22,163
305 522 217 305 522 305 200 417 105 74,300 34,734 39,566 541 532 9 532 532 541 510 510 31 52,720 33,799.5 18,921
305 121 184 121 121 305 142 142 163 29,560 17,892 11,668 541 593 52 541 593 541 555 593 14 56,700 35,721.0 20,979
305 286 19 286 286 305 377 305 72 59,100 24,822 34,278 541 402 139 402 402 541 407 407 134 43,130 29,704.5 13,426
305 198 107 198 198 305 0 305 25,900 21,126 4,774 541 477 64 477 477 541 608 541 67 50,900 32,067.0 18,833
305 542 237 305 542 305 0 237 305 60,300 35,574 24,726 541 490 51 490 490 541 628 541 87 51,550 32,476.5 19,074
305 108 197 108 108 305 58 58 247 21,540 17,346 4,194 541 368 173 368 368 541 848 541 307 45,450 28,633.5 16,817
Single order in a Season from Low Cost Supplier
Product
Sale
Price, p
Sourcing
cost, c
Net
salvage
value, s
Mean
Season
Demand, μ
SD of
Season
Demand, σ
Optimal
Service
Level
Optimal
Order
Size
Expected
Overstock
Expected
Understock
Expected
Profit
Trendy 100$ 40$ 20$ 400 250 75.00% 568 205 37 17,644$
Basic 50$ 30$ 20$ 1000 200 66.67% 1086 130 44 17,818$
35,463$
Two Orders in a Season with lost sales in each cycle
Product Sale Price, p
Sourcing
cost, c
Net
salvage
value, s
Mean
Demand over
first cycle, μ1
SD of Demand
over first cycle,
σ1
Optimal
Service
Level
Optimal
Order Size
Expected
Overstock in
cycle 1
Expected
Understock
in cycle 1
Expected
Profit in cycle
1
Mean Demand
over second
cycle, μ2
SD of Demand
over second
cycle, σ2
Expected
quantity at start
of cycle 2
Expected
Overstock in
cycle 2
Expected
Understock in
cycle 2
Expected
Profit in cycle
2
Total Profit
in Season
Trendy 100$ 42$ 20$ 200 177 72.50% 305 135.19 30.19 6,875$ 200 177 305.00 135.19 30.19 6,875$ 18,475$
Basic 50$ 32$ 20$ 500 141 61.67% 541 79.11 38.11 7,635$ 500 141 541.00 79.11 38.11 7,635$ 16,885$
35,360$
Responsiveness premium = 105%