Brazilian Economic Performance 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Mean
Inflation rate (IPC) 23.20% 10.00% 4.80% 1.00% 10.50% 9.90%
Bank lending rate 53.10% 27.10% 24.70% 29.20% 30.70% 32.96%
Exchange rate (reais/$) 0.972 1.039 1.117 1.207 1.700 120.7%
Equity returns (Sao Paulo Bovespa) 16.0% 28.0% 30.2% 33.5% 151.9% 51.92%
All three are on the right track. It is mostly a matter of finding the linkages beween their individual arguments.
1. Theoretically, Curly is correct in that CAPM assumes that all equity returns are over and above risk-free rates. These are of course,
expected returns, and are the investor’s expectations or requirements going INTO the investment.
2. Mo is also correct in arguing that regardless of what investors may EXPECT, the results are often quite different, sometimes disappointing.
Theoretically, when the investment does not yield at least the expected return, the investor should indeed liquidate their position. However,
in reality, many investors for a variety of reasons (tax implications, investment horizon, etc.), may stay in the investment and just complain
about the past and hope about the future.
3. Larry also is on the right track arguing that actual market returns will often result in less than various interest or debt instruments. One of
the more helpful arguments here is that equity returns and interest returns arise from very different economic and financial processes. Most
interest rate charges are stated and contracted for up-front, and represent lenders’ perception of an adequate risk-adjusted return over the
expected rate of inflation for the coming period. Equity returns, however, are that mystical process of equity markets in which the many
different motives of equity investors combine to move markets in sometimes mysterious ways, independent of interest rates, inflation rates,
or any other fundamental money price.
At this point both Larry and Mo simply stared at Curly, paused, and both ordered another beer. Using the Brazilian data presented, comment on this week’s
debate at the Tombs.
Larry argues that “its all about expected versus delivered. You can talk about what equity investors expect, but they often find that what is delivered for
years at a time is so small – even sometimes negative – that in effect the cost of equity is cheaper than the cost of debt.”
Curly is the theoretician. “Ladies, this is not about empirical results; it is about the fundamental concept of risk-adjusted returns. An investor in equities
knows he will reap returns only after all compensation has been made to debt-providers. He is therefore always subject to a higher level of risk to his return
than debt instruments, and as the capital asset pricing model states, equity investors set their expected returns as a risk-adjusted factor over and above the
returns to risk-free instruments.”
Moe – interrupts: “But you’re missing the point. The cost of capital is what the investor requires in compensation for the risk taken going into the
investment. If he doesn’t end up getting it, and that was happening here, then he pulls his capital out and walks.”
You have joined your friends at the local watering hole, The Tombs, for your weekly debate on international finance. The topic this week is whether the
cost of equity can ever be cheaper than the cost of debt. The group has chosen Brazil in the mid-1990s as the subject of the debate. One of the group
members has torn the following table of data out of a book, which is then the subject of the analysis.