CHAPTER 14
THE MIDDLE EAST: THE QUEST FOR DEVELOPMENT AND DEMOCRACY
Overview
This chapter provides a broad overview of political and socio-economic trends in the Middle East, situating
the region in the global economy and the global security structure. It contrasts assertions that the region is “falling
behind” with evidence that parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are dynamic, rapidly growing, and
deeply integrated into global markets. It encourages students to appreciate the diversity and complexity of countries.
It clearly shows that the shift to liberal economic policies and accountable government is slow and uneven in many
places.
The Middle East has been subject to the influence of outside powers for hundreds of years. This legacy of
colonialism and alliances with Western powers has shaped modern developments. The chapter demonstrates that
despite some tensions between the MENA and the “West,” there are many cultural, political, security, and
educational ties between the regions that makes any notion of a “Clash of Civilizations” seem very simplistic. The
chapter also attempts to provide perspectives on the global economy and global politics from those in the region. It
examines the Arab Spring and its potential for generating democratic political systems. The implications for changes
in regional geopolitics are also discussed. We also analyze the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in some depth because it
shapes regional dynamics in important ways.
Learning Objectives:
• To identify the countries of the MENA and provide an overview of some of their political and economic
characteristics.
• To assess how well the Middle East is adapting to the global economy.
• To examine how Western colonialism and the Cold War shaped Middle East development.
• To examine the major causes of violent conflicts.
• To explain the forces that hinders as well as promotes democratization.
• To explain key form of interstate cooperation in the MENA.
• To assess the challenges for countries due to the Arab Spring and its reverberations since 2010.
• To challenge common myths about the Middle East in contemporary public opinion and news reports.
Chapter Outline:
INTRODUCTION
a) The Arab Spring began in Tunisia in December 2010 and quickly spread to Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and
Yemen.
b) Many in the Middle East have mistrusted the world’s hegemon and condemned it for caring more about its
own interests than what is good for people in the region.
c) The Middle East has adopted some economic liberalism and political openness but resists
fundamental change.
d) Lack of economic diversification is making the region more vulnerable to economic pressures from
overseas.
e) The promises of liberalism have yet to trump the impulses of mercantilism.
f) Consolidation of democratic governance will depend upon responsible new leaders within the region.
Outside powers will unleash more horrendous problems if they seek military solutions to Syria’s civil
conflict, Iran’s nuclear program, or the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
AN OVERVIEW OF THE MIDDLE EAST
a) Countries of the MENA include non-Arab countries, the numerous Arab states in the Mashriq, the Arabian
Peninsula, and North Africa.
b) Economically, there are four general categories of countries: big oil exporters of the Gulf
Cooperation Council; big oil exporters with large populations; non-oil exporters with significant
agriculture, industrial exports, and tourism; and poor countries with large populations.
c) In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya held fair elections that may propel these
countries toward democracy; however, violence and repression in countries like Syria and Iraq seem to
foreshadow a darker political future.
THE MIDDLE EAST’S HISTORICAL LEGACY
The Ottoman Heritage
a) Most of today’s Middle East countries were once part of the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans and local rulers
tried with very limited success to keep up with the Europeans through “defensive modernization”—
reorganizing their governments, adopting European military technology and legal codes, and building state-
owned factories.
b) Scholars assert a variety of factors hindered the MENA’s ability to “keep up” with the West: lack of
church/state separation; the Capitulations; stagnation in Islamic thought; and the Eastern Question Game
(penetration of the region by outside powers).
Twentieth-Century Colonialism and Its Aftermath
a) European powers carved most of the region into colonies, drew borders, and suppressed populations seeking
independence. Colonial powers deliberately hampered industrialization in most Arab countries.
b) Arab socialists and military officers who staged a series of coup d’états in the 1950s and 1960s sought to
break the cycle of dependency and inequality they blamed on the West and its lackeys in the region. They
implemented mercantilist-style modernization programs.
The Cold War to the Present in the MENA
a) The Cold War had at least two lasting effects on the region. First, it pushed OPEC oil producers to assert
control over oil production and pricing. Second, the United States and its Middle East allies often
accommodated conservative Islamist movements and mujahideen. The “blowback” from this marriage of
convenience with Islamists would haunt the West in the 1990s.
b) Since September 11, 2001 there has been a regional crackdown on radical Islamists. The United States has
been preoccupied with the war on terror and the occupation of Iraq, suffering a sharp decline in its moral
authority. A new regional dynamic is the flexing of political and military muscle by the Shi’ites in Iran,
Iraq, and Lebanon.
c) The Arab Spring has also changed the geopolitical environment in some important ways. First, U.S.
adversaries (Qaddafi’s regime, Iran, and Bashir al–Assad’s regime) have suffered severe setbacks. Second,
two of the United States’ close allies in the war against terrorism—the dictators in Egypt and Tunisia—
have been overthrown. Third, conservative monarchies have survived and are increasingly assertive in
promoting the interests of Sunni Muslims. Finally, some states (Syria, Libya, Yemen) seem to be breaking
apart, opening the way for radical Islamism.
THE ROOTS OF CONFLICT AND COOPERATION
a) Given the many injustices in Middle East history, it is no surprise that there are lingering grievances that
contribute to recent conflicts.
b) Regional insecurity is tied to: (1) the search by external powers for influence in the region; (2) aggression
by regional leaders; and (3) oppressive regimes that foster Islamist violence.
Blaming the Outside World
a) During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States struggled for dominance in the region by
sponsoring different political forces. The superpowers’ support for their proxies played a role in stoking the
Arab–Israeli conflict.
b) Despite the prevalence of anti-Americanism today, the majority of regional governments have close
military ties and/or friendly relations with Washington. Yet, Iran, Syria, Hizballah, and Hamas resist “Pax
Americana”—a supposedly benevolent form of imperialism under which countries are expected to make
peace with Israel, end terrorism, and host U.S. military bases.
c) Countries that defy the United States face potentially heavy costs. Between March and October 2011,
NATO launched 9,700 air strikes against targets in Libya in a successful effort to help rebels overthrow the
Qaddafi regime.
d) The United States and its allies have also imposed a variety of economic sanctions on MENA countries
(Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran), including cutoffs of aid, freezing of assets, trade embargos, and prohibitions
on Western investments. For example, the UN’s punitive (and corrupt) Oil for Food Program allowed Iraq
to export only a certain amount of oil after 1992, and the profits were to be used to import food and
medicine.
e) Daniel Pipes argues that there has been a widespread political culture of conspiracism in Iran and the Arab
countries, wherein the “hidden hand” of the West or Israel is seen lurking behind all the region’s ills.
f) A discourse shared by some Muslim scholars chastises the West for its nefarious role in the region.
g) Public opinion polls reveal a high level of fear of the United States, even among its Middle East allies.
Blaming “Aggressive” Regional Leaders
a) Aggression by regional leaders has been as important a source of insecurity as superpower meddling or
transnational terrorism. Saddam Hussein and Iranian mullahs at some time or another tried to seize territory
or spread instability.
b) Since at least 2008, the threat of violent conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States has hung over
the region. Some scholars argue that Iranian militarism and defiance of international norms are at the heart
of the conflict.
c) While most Americans do not perceive Israel as an aggressor, Arabs have long portrayed it as a power
intent on territorial expansion at the expense of Palestinians and surrounding countries.
d) Its threats since 2009 to take military action against Iran convince some critics that its alleged penchant for
interstate adventurism and militarism is alive and well. In contrast, Israeli leaders have consistently
justified their military engagements on the basis of their inherent right of self–defense.
e) Israeli policies toward Palestinians provide the most persuasive evidence that Zionist expansionism is
hindering conflict resolution.
f) The West Bank and Gaza for over a decade have experienced economic distress, largely as a result of
deliberate Israeli policies to isolate the territories from international trade and prevent Palestinians from
working in Israel. Israeli settlement expansion has boosted the Jewish population in the Occupied West
Bank and East Jerusalem to 500,000. Perceiving themselves as subjected to apartheid-like conditions and
slow-motion ethnic cleansing, Palestinians have stiffened their resistance, some of which turned violent as
during the intifadas (uprisings) in 1987–1991 and 2000–2005.
Blaming Oppression (and Islamist Resistance to It)
a) Dominant ethno-linguistic and religious groups have subjected minorities to discrimination and have
explained their violence via “myths” that serve as little more than cover stories for the pursuit of self-
interest.
b) Historically, violence has been used by movements seeking independence from colonial rule or outsiders.
c) Some Islamists claim that they are fighting governing elites whose cultural beliefs reflect
“Westoxication”—a seduction to poisonous, imported Western culture and institutions. Others seek the
right to implement conservative social policies they claim are based on Islamic law.
d) Extremist Islamic movements and terrorist groups use religion as a political tool, even if reasonable people
agree that they misinterpret Islam. militant Islamist movements have spread a puritanical interpretation of
Islam with emphasis on jihadist rhetoric and the application of Islamic law. Extremists are in some ways a
reaction to the perceived humiliation of their countries by the Americans, Europeans, and Israelis.
Cooperation at the Interstate Level
a) Despite insecurity in some countries, most of the MENA’s citizens do not face violence daily. The Arab
Spring has brought unprecedented demonstrations, but the only places where it has led to thousands of
people killed and injured are Libya and Syria.
b) Almost all the countries in the Middle East have at some time benefited from their security relationship
with the United States and Europe.
c) Cooperation among Middle Eastern states is not yet well institutionalized, largely owing to historical
rivalries. The Arab League, headquartered in Cairo, represents so many different countries with competing
interests that it cannot easily act in concert on major issues.
d) The GCC has been the most successful regional organization, coordinating trade and security policies.
Cooperation at the Human Level
a) Emigration and dual citizenship tie Europe and the United States more closely to the Middle East than
many observers realize. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that in 2010 the U.S. foreign-born population
included more than 356,000 Iranians, 137,000 Egyptians, 127,000 Israelis, 121,000 Lebanese, and 106,000
Turks.
b) Many immigrants remain connected to their home countries through extended family ties and remittances.
More than eight million first-generation immigrants from the Arab countries and Turkey are living in
Europe
Box: International Education and the Middle East
a) For a region as important to the United States as the Middle East, it is surprising that so few Americans
learn the region’s primary languages or study abroad there. In the 2009–2010 school year, only about 9,803
Americans participated in a study-abroad program in the Middle East and North Africa.
b) The United States—like Europe—has for decades attracted many of the best-educated Middle Easterners to
study in its universities. In the 2011–2012 school year there were 34,139 Saudis studying in the United
States—more than the number of Canadians. There were also 11,973 Turkish students, bringing the total
number of students from the Middle East to about 74,000.
c) Many Middle Easterners return home with their U.S. or European degrees, taking up important positions in
the government and business community. In addition, American-style, English- language universities are
popping up like mushrooms in the region.
FACING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: INTEGRATION OR MARGINALIZATION?
Oil, Industry, and Growth
a) Growth in many parts of the MENA is tied to hydrocarbons. Growth in the MENA (not including Turkey
and Israel) averaged 5.1 percent from 2000 to 2007, one of the best spurts since the late 1970s.
b) Non-oil exporters seem to be finding their own successful growth models based on industrial exports,
tourism, and banking. However, in 2011, GDP suffered negative growth in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Syria.
In 2012, average growth of GDP in non-oil exporters was a sluggish 2.5 percent, partly due to the effects of
the Euro zone crisis on exports. There is a real danger that continued instability will hamper economic
recovery.
c) Israel has experienced a dramatic economic takeoff and transformation in the last 40 years. It has some of
the highest numbers of engineers, scientists, and patent holders per capita of any country in the world.
d) Turkey’s economy has performed remarkably since 2002, with GDP growing at over 5 percent per year. Its
advantages include its “young population, geopolitical position, level of entrepreneurship, and the quality of
human capital.”
Box: Dubai: The Las Vegas of Arabia
a) The city-state of Dubai is one of the fastest-growing regions.
b) Growth is fueled by openness to foreign investment, finance, and trade.
c) The country is transforming itself into a cultural, banking, transportation, and tourist hub.
Trade and Investment with the World
a) MENA countries are being integrated into the global economy through the World Trade Organization and
various free-trade agreements. Collectively, their most important trade and investment partner by far is the
European Union.
b) The MENA is an important source of hydrocarbons for the United States, and an important market for U.S.
exports of weapons, machinery, aircraft, vehicles, grain, and engineering.
c) Middle East oil exporters recycle some profits back to oil–consuming countries in the form of investments
in stock markets, purchases of real estate, and deposits in Western banks. This petrodollar recycling, first
witnessed in the 1970s jumped into high gear again after 2000, tying the economic fortunes of some
MENA countries closely to the international financial system.
d) Many Middle East investments come from sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), which are large investment
pools controlled by the governments of resource–rich countries.
e) Remittances—money transferred by foreign workers to their home countries—also strongly integrate
people in Europe and the Middle East. Countries in North Africa rely on billions of dollars of annual
remittances from workers in Europe. Egyptians in Europe, the Arab countries, and North America sent $14
billion back to Egypt in 2011 and $18 billion in 2012. Without remittances, labor-exporting countries
would have significantly worse current account deficits.
Globalization in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
a) The six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar—are deeply integrated into the global economy not just through oil
exports and SWFs but also via their labor markets. Alongside the indigenous population are expatriate
(foreign) workers who make up more than 70 percent of the entire workforce in these six countries and
nearly half of the 47 million people living there in 2011.
b) While the GCC has benefited enormously from the skills and low labor costs of its
internationalized workforce, the region’s ruling families are increasingly worried about the political
and cultural dangers from heavy reliance on foreigners.
c) Non-GCC countries also rely on expatriate workers from Bangladesh, China, and India.
The Falling Behind Thesis
a) Some argue that the MENA is falling behind other modernizing countries and failing to move up in the
global hierarchy. Many countries’ economies are still dominated by inefficient state-owned enterprises and
unprofitable public banks. Periodic conflict and lack of industrial dynamism have stunted foreign
investment.
The Challenge of the Historical Legacy
a) Some of the region’s inheritance from the past—colonialism, mono exports, and loss of entrepreneurial
minorities—seems to be hampering its adaptation to globalization.
b) Before the 1980s, development policies with high tariffs, government subsidies, price controls, and
overvalued currencies all contributed to a misallocation of resources.
c) When oil prices (adjusted for inflation) began to tumble in 1983, countries began to have trouble servicing
their debt. Not until 2002 would crude oil prices (adjusted for inflation) recover dramatically.
d) Gains in per-capita GDP before the financial crisis are now threatened by the Arab Spring. Growth of GDP
per capita slowed after 2008 and turned negative in 2011 and 2012. In 2012, the overall unemployment
rates in North Africa and Middle East were 10.3 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively, higher than in any
other region of the world.
e) The MENA has not significantly diversified its exports. Eighty percent of its exports to the United States
consist of oil, gas, and minerals. Surprisingly little trade occurs between MENA countries (although the
GCC countries have become major investors in other parts of the Arab world).
Societal Problems
a) Women face significant restrictions in job opportunities and social freedoms.
b) Economic dynamism in the private sector is particularly strong in Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, and Morocco.
c) The worst economies in the region are Yemen and the Gaza Strip (and Syria due to civil war).
THE CHALLENGE OF DEMOCRACY
Potential Impediments to the Spread of Representative Democracy
a) Europe and the United States have historically weakened movements toward constitutional
government and supported many authoritarian regimes. Critics argue that the West is hypocritical on the
issue of democracy: supporting the overthrow of rogue regimes, embracing political change in a few
countries, but continuing business as usual with royal families. When Western powers have used military
means to induce democratic change—by invading Iraq, bombing Libyan targets, and giving arms and
logistical support to Syrian rebels—the unintended consequence has been to provoke sectarian civil wars
that make the prospects for stable democracy less likely.
b) Oil is another reason for resistance to political change. Because “rentier states” (oil-export dependent
countries) do not need to tax their citizens heavily, demands for representation have not been as successful
as elsewhere. Oil concentrates resources in the hands of small elite who buy political loyalty and foster
political dependency.
c) Weak civil society may also explain why so many MENA countries rank low on Freedom House’s annual
ranking of political freedoms and civil liberties in the world. The Arab Spring has demonstrated both the
benefits of stronger civil society and the dangers where it is weaker.
d) Religious and cultural explanations of democratic weakness in the MENA are quite prevalent, but should
be viewed with much caution.
e) Most of the large, “mainstream” Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood behave like political
parties everywhere in the world, seeking to build large coalitions to win elections and improve their
societies.
f) Results from Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya suggest three potential trajectories involving Islamists: domination
of parliament; a large role in government via coalition; or marginalization from formal politics. It is too
early to know how trends will play out, but we can be confident that in many countries Islamists will adapt
to democratic norms and procedures.
g) Most people in the Middle East support the idea of democracy, according to opinion polls.
h) Globalization and technological change are undermining information monopolies that
governments held until quite recently.
i) The countries that have made the most democratic progress have for the most part not done so because of
Western political or military pressure. Royal families in Kuwait, Jordan, and Morocco seem to have
calculated that moves toward constitutional monarchy, competitive elections, and women’s rights will
increase political stability and please foreign investors.
CONCLUSION
a) All MENA countries face some structural pressures from the international community. Individual leaders
have decisive choices to make, but they alone cannot transform their countries.
b) A mercantilist might attribute many of the conflicts and development outcomes discussed in this chapter to
the struggle by states for power and protection of national interests.
c) A liberal theorist might stress the inevitability of MENA change as a result of global market forces.
d) A structuralist could point to the MENA’s weak industrialization and great disparities of wealth as evidence
of the exploitation inherent in global capitalism.
Key Terms:
• Defensive modernization
• Mujahideen
• Pax Americana
• Oil-for-Food program
• conspiracism
• Intifada
• Westoxication
• petrodollar recycling
• sovereign wealth funds (SWFs)
• remittances
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
• rentier state
Teaching Tips:
• This chapter provides an opportunity to discuss how the “weight of history” affects changes in
contemporary political economies. Ask students to assess “how much” can be explained by referring to
developments decades or hundreds of years ago.
• There are many changes in the region since the Arab Spring started. There will be important developments after
this book’s publication. We recommend that you talk about Middle East current events in the news as a way to
help students connect events to deeper structures and processes discussed in this chapter.
• There are many supplementary resources on the Internet that you may want to use when teaching this chapter.
The Center for Investigative Reporting has an excellent YouTube channel with links to documentaries and short
videos that can be shown in class. See http://www.youtube.com/ifiles.
• There are terms besides the “key terms” that may warrant discussion in class. They include: Mashriq,
Capitulations, Eastern Question Game, ijtihad, Zionism, Seven Sisters, peace dividend, Sunni, Shi’ite, and
Islamist.
• Ask your students to assess the role of the United States in the region. How do their perceptions of this role
contrast with how others in the region perceive U.S. behavior? Ask students to explain why mainstream U.S.
views on Israel often differ from those held by many in the MENA.
• Many students will not be familiar with the location of many of the countries mentioned in this chapter.
Encourage them to make use of maps in class and other aids to understanding the region’s political geography.
Moreover, students may feel a bit overwhelmed by the names of important leaders in the region, historically and
currently. You may want to give some background on some of the leaders in class.
• This chapter emphasizes that it is difficult to make sweeping generalizations about the region. Students should
be encouraged to contrast economic and political conditions in countries. Similarly, the chapter encourages the
reader to question assertions that they have been exposed to concerning political Islam, terrorism, causes of
conflict, and Middle East cultures.
• Ask students to explain in discussion and through writing how their daily lives are directly affected by and tied
to the Middle East—through family ties, historical immigration, troop deployments, food, and travel. Have
students explain whether or not they would seriously consider traveling to the region, living there, and
becoming fluent in one of its languages.
• To develop the ability of students to see the interconnectedness of events in the region, ask readers to assess
how they think countries in the region would be different if: the United States had not invaded Iraq; if
Palestinians and Israelis had signed a peace treaty in 2000; if the Cold War were still around; if Iran becomes a
nuclear power; or if the price of oil reaches $200 per barrel.
Sample Essay-Discussion Questions:
1. Which Middle East countries are best prepared to face the challenges of globalization? Explain.
2. What are the most important “human connections” between the Middle East and the rest of the world?
3. In what Arab territories does Israel maintain settlements? Are Israeli or Arab policies mostly to blame for the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
4. Which countries have been accused of using or testing weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East? Where
and when were these weapons believed to have been used?
5. What are some of the main products and services traded between the Middle East and Europe and the United
States?
6. Identify major reasons why Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories are the worst economic
performers in the region.
7. Has the Arab Spring lived up to its promises? In what ways has it changed some countries for the better? What
were unintended consequences that were very negative? What does this tell us about our ability as IPE scholars
to predict how complex social trends will unfold in the future?
Sample Examination Questions:
1. Which of the following statements is INCORRECT?
a) Morocco is a low-income, significantly agricultural, non-oil-exporting country.
2. The first two countries in which the Arab Spring spread, causing two leaders to be overthrown, were: free”?
a) Libya and Syria
3. Which of the following factors is NOT a reason to be optimistic about the prospects for democracy in the
d) “mainstream” Islamist parties
4. Which of the following is NOT cited as an impediment to democracy?
a) civil society characteristics
5. Which of the following is an important consequence of the Arab Spring?
a) Islamist political parties have refused to participate in democratic elections
6. Which of the following statements is INCORRECT?
a) relatively little trade occurs between Arab countries, compared to their overall trade with the rest of the
7. Which of the following statements is INCORRECT?
d) Middle East growth rates were relatively strong in the 1950s and 1960s
8. Which of following is NOT a characteristic of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?
9. Which statement about the MENA would a structuralist most likely disagree with?
10. Which four countries below correspond, in order, to these characteristics: biggest importer of oil from the
MENA; largest exporter of arms to the MENA; former colonial power in Algeria; ally of Syria during the Cold
War?
11. Which data below is significantly higher than indicated in the text?
12. Which of the following, according to the authors, is NOT a misconception about the Middle East?
a) Most of the world’s terrorist attacks occur in the Middle East.
13. Israel has never occupied or built settlements in which territory?
d) West Bank
14. Which group of countries could all be classified as high-income oil exporters with relatively small populations?
d) Libya, Oman, Iran
15. Which statement is INCORRECT?
a) Approximately 17 percent of Israelis are Muslims.