2.5 The Quantity Theory of Money: A First Look at the Link between Money
and Prices (pages 36–43)
Learning Objective: Use the quantity theory of money to analyze the relationship between money
and prices in the long run.
A. Irving Fisher and the Equation of Exchange
The velocity of money is defined as the number of times a dollar is used to purchase a good or
service in GDP or V PY/M, where V is the velocity of money; Y is real GDP, P is the price
level (so P × Y is nominal GDP), and M is the money supply. Rearranging terms, we obtain the
equation of exchange, M × V P × Y (which is true by definition). Irving Fisher assumed that
the velocity of money is constant to develop the quantity theory of money. Therefore, if the
money supply (M) increases more quickly than real GDP (Y), the difference is inflation (P).
B. The Quantity Theory Explanation of Inflation
We can rewrite the equation of exchange in percentage terms as: the percentage change in M plus
the percentage change in V equals the percentage change in P plus the percentage change in Y.
Because V is assumed to be constant, the percentage change in V is 0. Therefore, if the money
supply (M) increases more quickly than real GDP (Y), the difference is inflation (P).
C. How Accurate Are Forecasts of Inflation Based on the Quantity Theory?
Because velocity can move erratically in the short run, we would not expect the quantity
equation to provide good forecasts of inflation in the short run. Over the long run, however,
there is a strong link between changes in the money supply and inflation.
D. The Hazards of Hyperinflation
When there is hyperinflation, prices rise so rapidly that a given amount of money can purchase
fewer and fewer goods and services each day. Households and firms may refuse to accept money
at all, in which case money no longer functions as a medium of exchange. When economies do
not use money, the degree of specialization necessary to maintain high rates of productivity
breaks down.
E. What Causes Hyperinflation?
The quantity theory indicates that hyperinflation is caused by the money supply increasing
far more rapidly than real output of goods and services. The ultimate cause of hyperinflation
is usually governments spending more than they collect in taxes, which results in government
budget deficits. If private investors are not willing to purchase the government bonds and the
government controls the central bank, the government sells the bonds to the central bank. The
central bank increases the money supply to buy the bonds, resulting in monetizing the debt.
F. Should Central Banks Be Independent?
Research has shown that countries with highly independent central banks have lower inflation
rates than countries whose central banks have little independence. The more independent a
central bank is of the rest of the government, the more it can resist political pressures to
increase the money supply, and the lower the country’s inflation rate is likely to be.
Policymakers continue to debate whether Congress and the president should change the law to
reduce the Fed’s independence, although, historically, curtailing the independence of a central
bank has resulted in higher inflation rates.
Teaching Tips
Have students consider the implications of Figure 2.4 on page 42 regarding the independence of the
Federal Reserve. Discussion can involve what would likely happen to inflation in the United States if
Congress reduced the independence of the Fed.