978-0078024108 Chapter 17 Part 3

subject Type Homework Help
subject Pages 9
subject Words 1139
subject Authors William J Stevenson

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page-pf1
Chapter 17 - Project Management
8.
Path
Expected
Duration
Variance
Std. Dev.
A
10
1.21
1.100
B
8
2.00
1.414
C
12
1.00
1.000
D
15
2.89
1.700
E
14
1.44
1.200
Path A:

 
Probability of completion ≤ 16 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00treat probability of completion
as being = 1.0000)
Path B:
Path D:

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 16 weeks = 0.7224
page-pf2
Chapter 17 - Project Management
b. Probability (Time ≤ 15 weeks):


Path A:

 
Probability of completion ≤ 15 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00treat probability of completion
as being = 1.0000)
Path B:
Path E:

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 15 weeks = 0.7967
page-pf3
Chapter 17 - Project Management
17-23
c. Probability (Time ≤ 13 weeks):


Path A:

 
as being = 1.0000)
Path C:

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 13 weeks = 0.8413

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 13 weeks = 0.2033
page-pf4
17-24
Education.
9. Given:
Activity
Mean
Standard
Deviation
C
5
1.3
D
4
1.0
E
8
1.6
Probability (T > 10 weeks):


Path A:
Expected duration = 5 + 4 = 9
Standard deviation:
 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 10 weeks = 0.7291
Path B:
Expected duration = 8
Standard deviation = 1.600
page-pf5
Chapter 17 - Project Management
17-25
Education.
10. Given:
The project described below is scheduled to be completed in 11 weeks.
Activity
Mean
Standard
Deviation
C
4
0.70
D
6
0.90
E
3
0.62
F
9
1.90
a. If you were the manager of this project, would you be concerned? Explain.
Probability (T ≤ 11 weeks):


Variance =  
Standard deviation =  

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 11 weeks = 0.8106
Variance =  
Standard deviation =  

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 11 weeks = 0.3085
page-pf6
Chapter 17 - Project Management
17-26
Education.
b. If there is a penalty of $5,000 a week for each week the project is late, what is the probability
of incurring a penalty of at least $5,000?
This question is asking what the probability will be that the project will take at least 12 weeks
(which would be 1 week late).
 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 12 weeks = 0.9599
Path B:

 
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 12 weeks = 0.5000
page-pf7
Chapter 17 - Project Management
11. Given:
We are given the following times (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) for each activity in the
table below.
a. Determine the expected completion time for each path and its variance.
Activity
Optimistic
Most
Likely
Pessimistic
Mean
Variance
1-2
8
8
8
8.00
0/36
2-3
11
12
13
12.00
4/36
2-4
5
6
7
6.00
4/36
2-5
10
12
14
12.00
16/36
3-8
9
10
12
10.17
9/36
4-6
14
18
26
18.67
144/36
4-7
13
13
13
13.00
0/36
5-9
7
10
12
9.83
25/36
6-11
8
10
14
10.33
36/36
7-11
10.5
13
15.5
13.00
25/36
8-11
5
7
10
7.17
25/36
9-10
10
11
12
11.00
4/36
10-11
6
6
6
6.00
0/36
Path 1-2-3-8-11:
Expected completion time = 8.00 + 12.00 + 10.17 + 7.17 = 37.34
Variance = 0/36 + 4/36 + 9/36 + 25/36 = 38/36
Standard deviation =
 
Path 1-2-4-6-11:
Expected completion time = 8.00 + 6.00 + 18.67 + 10.33 = 43.00
Variance = 0/36 + 4/36 + 144/36 + 36/36 = 184/36
page-pf8
17-28
Education.
Expected completion time = 8.00 + 12.00 + 9.83 + 11.00 + 6.00 = 46.83
Variance = 0/36 + 16/36 + 25/36 + 4/36 + 0/36 = 45/36
Standard deviation =
 
b. Determine the probability that the project will require more than 49 weeks.
Probability (T > 49 weeks):
Path 1-2-3-8-11:
Path 1-2-4-7-11:

 
Probability of completion ≤ 49 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00treat probability of
completion as being = 1.0000)
Path 1-2-5-9-10-11:

page-pf9
17-29
Education.
c. Determine the probability that the project will be completed in 46 weeks or less.
Probability (T ≤ 46 weeks):
Path 1-2-3-8-11:

 

 
Probability of completion ≤ 46 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00treat probability of
completion as being = 1.0000)
Path 1-2-5-9-10-11:
page-pfa
Chapter 17 - Project Management
17-30
Education.
12. Given:
We are given the following times (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) for each activity in the
table below.
Activity
Optimistic
Most
Likely
Pessimistic
Mean
Variance
A
2
4
6
4.00
16/36
D
6
8
10
8.00
16/36
E
7
9
12
9.17
25/36
H
2
3
5
3.17
9/36
F
3
4
8
4.50
25/36
G
5
7
9
7.00
16/36
B
2
2
3
2.17
1/36
I
2
3
6
3.33
16/36
J
3
4
5
4.00
4/36
K
4
5
8
5.33
16/36
C
5
8
12
8.17
49/36
M
1
1
1
1.00
0/36
N
6
7
11
7.50
25/36
O
8
9
13
9.50
25/36
End
a. Construct a network diagram.
2
4
8
1
1
5
D
M
E
N

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