price volatility of the underlying futures commodity with respect to interest rates, the larger the
number of contracts needed to hedge.
Example 5:
A bank has a long position in $500,000 face value 11.03% yield Treasury Bonds that have a
duration of 11 years. The bank is concerned about rising interest rates between now and August.
The bonds have a price quote of 91 1/32 or $455,156. T-Bond futures contracts call for the
delivery of $100,000 face value of Treasury Bonds. The September contract (the nearest to
August) has a price quote of 89 (or $89,000) and the underlying T-bonds to be delivered have a 7
year duration and a 9.397% yield.2 How many futures contracts are needed to fully hedge the
position?3
NF = (-11 / -7) ($455,156 / $89,000) = 8.036 or 8 contracts should be sold. Always round the
number of contracts down, because hedging efficiency is improved if one slightly underhedges
rather than overhedges.
If prices move according to the duration predictions (convexity notwithstanding) then the hedge
should prevent large gains or losses from occurring for normal interest rate movements. For
instance if rates rise 50 basis points:
F = PF NF = – 7 (0.0050 / 1.09397) $89,000 = $2,847.43 gain per contract 8 contracts
= $22,779.42.
The price of the futures contract drops, but a drop in price makes money for a short position in
futures.
The predicted change in the spot value is
P = – 11 (0.0050 / 1.1103) $455,156 = -$22,546.68
The predicted net gain or loss is the difference or $232.74.
b. Macrohedging With Futures
A macrohedge is normally designed to immunize the equity value with respect to interest rate
changes. I.E. we desire E = 0. From Chapter 22,
E = – [DA – kDL] A (R / (1+R))
F = – DF NF PF (RF / (1+RF)) Setting E = F and if the interest rates and rate changes
are the same:
– [DA – kDL] A = -DF NF PF Solving for NF yields:
2T-bond futures contracts are priced according to the cheapest to deliver bond. The deliverable
bond must have at least a 15 year time to first possible call or maturity, and is priced as if it were
an 8% coupon bond. I used these terms to arrive at the yield price combination on the futures
contract.
3In this case RF does not equal R but R = RF. Omitting the (1+R) and (1+RF) terms usually
does not materially affect the hedge. If the change in rates is not likely to be similar between the
cash and futures instrument (as in a cross hedge), then one should include the different rate
changes. For instance, RF may be characterized as an expected percentage of R based on
regression analysis of historical changes of the two rates.