Chapter 16 – Securities Firms and Investment Banks
6th Edition
1. Recent Trends and Balance Sheets
a. Recent Trends
As goes the stock market, so goes securities firms’ profitability. Industry profits are
strongly cyclical. Extended bull markets are good for profits, employment and growth;
crashes and downturns hurt trading volume and hence commission income (a mainstay of
revenue at most firms). Fewer firms seek to issue new equity during a bear market, and
debt issuance drops off as coverage ratios decline so underwriting income is also cyclical.
Both underwriting and brokerage income recovered dramatically in the 1990s after
dropping off precipitously subsequent to the 1987 crash. Profitability remained strong
with the bull market of the 1990s. Industry profits were at a record high $21 billion in
2000, but fell 50% in 2001. Reasons for the profit problems included the weak stock
market, the September 11, 2001 attacks, the drop in M&A activity, and the loss of
confidence by investors due to the many ethical violations by some corporations, bankers
and auditors. Profitability remained poor in 2002 at $6.9 billion, but increased in 2003,
hitting a record $22.5 billion and remained high at $19.5 billion in 2004 on large
increases in underwriting activity and hefty cuts in interest and operating expenses. ROE
for 2004 was 13.04%. Domestic underwriting activity was $3,358.3 billion in 2006.
Profits would have been up in 2005 but interest expense on financing securities
inventories increased as interest rates rose. Interest expense rose from $43 billion in
2003 to $136 billion in 2005 to almost $216 billion in 2006. Pre-tax profits fell to $17.6
billion in 2005 but recovered to $33.1 billion in 2006 due to additional revenue growth.
The year 2007 was as bad a year for these firms as it was for most of the financial
services industry due to the subprime crisis. UBS wrote down $10 billion of subprime
related assets in 2007. Likewise, Morgan Stanley wrote down $9.4 billion, Merrill Lynch
wrote down $5 billion. Two hedge funds of Bear Stearns collapsed and went bankrupt
due to their subprime holdings as well. This was the setup to the Federal Reserve assisted
bailout of Bear in March 2008 where J.P. Morgan Chase agreed to purchase Bear for $2 a
share or $236 million.1 J.P. Morgan Chase also received guarantees on parts of Bear’s
mortgage portfolio.
In 2008 the industry reported net losses of $34.1 billion as revenues fell 38.7%.
Expenses fell as well particularly because with the lower interest rates, interest expense
declined. Trading and investment account losses for the industry were $65 billion. As a
result employment in the industry fell from 869,000 to 840,800. Employment kept
falling to 779,800 in September 2009. Profits rebounded sharply in 2009 reaching a
record $61.4 billion. Commissions, fee income and trading profits all rebounded and
interest expense remained very low as the Fed kept interest rates down. High profits
helped in rebuilding capital and efforts to raise external equity.
The years 2010 through 2012 brought many new challenges. The threat of a ‘fiscal cliff’
as U.S. government debt levels grew rapidly while Congress could not decide whether to
increase the debt ceilings, the problems in the Euro area, increasing regulations and
generally weak U.S. economic growth limited profitability for many firms. In May
2010 the ‘flash crash’ brought more scrutiny to trading activities as did the collapse in
1 The sale price was subsequently raised when shareholders complained.
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