Chapter 20 – Hedge Funds
6 contracts $250 (F0 − F1) = $1,500 [(S0 1.005) – S1]
= $1,500 S0 [1.005 – (1 + rM )] = $1,500 [1,000 ( .005 – rM )]
= $7,500 − ($1,500,000 rM)
= $3,078,750 + ($3,000,000 e)
The expected rate of return for the (improperly) hedged portfolio is:
($3,078,750/$3,000,000) – 1 = .02625 = 2.625%
Now the z-value for a rate of return of zero is:
The probability of a negative return is: N( .4283) = .3342
Here, the probability of a negative return is very close to the probability
computed earlier.
c. The variance for the diversified (but improperly hedged) portfolio is:
( .252 .052) + .0062 = 1.9225 104
Standard deviation =
= 1.3865%
The z-value for a rate of return of zero is:
The probability of a negative return is: N(1.8933) = .0292
The probability of a negative return is now far greater than the result with
proper hedging.
d. The market exposure from improper hedging is far more important in
contributing to total volatility (and risk of losses) in the case of the 100-
stock portfolio because the idiosyncratic risk of the diversified portfolio is
so small.
19. a., b., c.
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