The 80 Minute Forecast
Forecasting the 3rd quarter for Tim Hortons
for period ended 9/30/2012, to be
announced November 8.
But first, some facts about quarterly
announced in
press release
with exchange
press releases,
blackout period,
no insider trading
sometimes a “pre-
announcement”
end
Timeline of Quarterly News
Do firms try to avoid missing analyst
earnings forecasts?
Jeff Abarbanell and Reuven Lehavy “Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings?”
(Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2003)
Skinner and Sloan “Don’t let an earnings torpedo sink your portfolio”
Why do managers care?
Seasonality at Home Depot
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
8/2/09
11/2/08
2/3/08
4/29/07
7/30/06
10/30/05
1/30/05
5/2/04
8/3/03
11/3/02
2/3/02
4/29/01
7/30/00
10/31/99
NET SALES
Home Depot Quarterly Sales
seasonality at Disney World
seasonality in oil-based fuels