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Annual Dividend Yield 4.00%
Value of Contingent Claim Per Share #NAME?
Number of Shares Subject to Claim (000s)
1,000
Total Value of Contingent Claim ($000s) #NAME?
Residual Income Valuation ($000)
Company Name NETFLIX INC
Most Recent Fiscal Year End 12/31/2004
Date of Valuation 3/1/2005
Cost of Common Equity 10.00%
Fiscal Year of Forecast 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Valuation to Common Equity
Net Income 18,393 62,017 79,281 92,917 98,782 93,895 98,590 103,519 108,695 114,130 119,836
Common Equity at Beginning of Year 156,283 204,019 283,665 381,245 475,032 545,336 572,603 601,233 631,295 662,860 696,003
Residual Income 2,764 41,615 50,915 54,792 51,279 39,361 41,329 43,396 45,566 47,844 50,236
Present Value of Residual Income 2,513 34,392 38,253 37,424 31,840 22,218 21,208 20,244 19,324 18,446 17,607
Present Value Beyond 20 Years 243,268
Present Value of First 20 Years 389,959
Common Equity as of
12/31/2004 156,283
Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj. 789,509
Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date 843,031
Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims 0
Value Attributable to Common Equity 843,031
Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date 52,732
Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date 52,732
Forecast Price/Share $15.99
Valuation to all Investors
Cost of Debt 8.00%
Cost of Preferred Stock 9.00%
After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital 8.91%
Interest Expense to Debtholders 52 73 101 130 155 170 178 187 196 206 217
Beginning Book Value of Debt 68 93 134 180 224 257 270 283 298 313 328
Residual Interest Expense 46 66 90 116 137 149 157 164 173 181 190
Present Value of Residual Interest Income 43 56 72 85 93 94 91 89 86 84 82
Value of Debt 3,800
Dividends to Preferred Stockholders 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Book Value of Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Residual Income to Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Present Value of Preferred Residual Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Value of Preferred Stock 0
Net Operating Income 18,444 62,090 79,382 93,047 98,937 94,065 98,768 103,706 108,891 114,336 120,053
Beginning Net Operating Assets 156,351 204,112 283,798 381,425 475,256 545,593 572,873 601,517 631,593 663,172 696,331
Residual Income to all Investors 4,520 43,912 54,108 59,079 56,613 45,477 47,751 50,138 52,645 55,277 58,041
Present Value of Residual Investor Income 4,151 37,024 41,890 41,998 36,954 27,258 26,280 25,338 24,429 23,553 22,708
Entity Value 1,078,455
Less Value of Debt (3,800)
Less Value of Preferred Stock 0
Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj. 1,074,655
Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date 1,147,507
Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims 0
Value Attributable to Common Equity 1,147,507
Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date 52,732
Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date 52,732
Forecast Price/Share $21.76
12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028 12/31/2029
125,828 132,119 138,725 145,662 152,945 160,592 168,622 177,053 185,905 195,201 204,961 215,209 225,969 237,268
730,803 767,343 805,710 845,996 888,295 932,710 979,346 1,028,313 1,079,729 1,133,715 1,190,401 1,249,921 1,312,417 1,378,038
52,748 55,385 58,154 61,062 64,115 67,321 70,687 74,221 77,933 81,829 85,921 90,217 94,727 99,464
16,807 16,043 15,314 14,618 13,953 13,319 12,714 12,136 11,584 11,058 10,555 10,075 9,617 9,180
227 239 251 263 276 290 305 320 336 353 370 389 408 429
345 362 380 399 419 440 462 485 509 535 561 589 619 650
200 210 220 231 243 255 268 281 295 310 326 342 359 377
79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65 63 62 60 58 57 55
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
126,055 132,358 138,976 145,925 153,221 160,882 168,926 177,373 186,241 195,553 205,331 215,598 226,378 237,696
731,147 767,705 806,090 846,395 888,714 933,150 979,807 1,028,798 1,080,238 1,134,250 1,190,962 1,250,510 1,313,036 1,378,687
60,943 63,990 67,190 70,549 74,077 77,781 81,670 85,753 90,041 94,543 99,270 104,233 109,445 114,917
21,894 21,109 20,352 19,622 18,918 18,240 17,586 16,955 16,347 15,761 15,196 14,651 14,125 13,619
DCF Valuations ($000)
Company Name NETFLIX INC
Most Recent Fiscal Year End 12/31/2004
Date of Valuation 3/1/2005
Cost of Common Equity 10.00%
Fiscal Year of Forecast 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Valuation to Common Equity
Free Cash Flow to Common Equity (29,343) (17,629) (18,300) (870) 28,477 66,628 69,959 73,457 77,130 80,987 85,036
Present Value of FCF (26,676) (14,570) (13,749) (594) 17,682 37,610 35,900 34,268 32,711 31,224 29,805
Present Value Beyond 20 Years 411,787
Present Value of First 20 Years 377,722
Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj. 789,509
Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date 843,031
Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims 0
Value Attributable to Common Equity 843,031
Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date 52,732
Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date 52,732
Forecast Price/Share $15.99
Valuation All Investors
Cost of Debt 8.00%
Cost of Preferred Stock 9.00%
After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital 8.91%
Free Cash Flow to Debt 27 32 55 86 122 157 165 173 182 191 200
Present Value of FCF to Debt 25 27 44 63 83 99 96 93 91 88 86
Value of Debt 3,800
Free Cash Flow to Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Present Value of FCF to Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Value of Preferred Stock 0
Free Cash Flows to Investors (29,316) (17,597) (18,245) (784) 28,599 66,785 70,124 73,630 77,312 81,177 85,236
Present Value of FCF to Investors (26,919) (14,837) (14,125) (557) 18,668 40,029 38,594 37,210 35,875 34,589 33,349
Entity Value 1,078,455
Less Value of Debt (3,800)
Less Value of Preferred Stock 0
Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj. 1,074,655
Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date 1,147,507
Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims 0
Value Attributable to Common Equity 1,147,507
Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date 52,732
Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date 52,732
Forecast Price/Share $21.76
12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028 12/31/2029
89,288 93,752 98,440 103,362 108,530 113,957 119,654 125,637 131,919 138,515 145,441 152,713 160,348 168,366
28,450 27,157 25,922 24,744 23,619 22,546 21,521 20,543 19,609 18,718 17,867 17,055 16,279 15,539
210 221 232 243 256 268 282 296 311 326 342 360 377 396
83 81 79 77 75 73 70 69 67 65 63 61 60 58
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
89,498 93,973 98,672 103,605 108,786 114,225 119,936 125,933 132,229 138,841 145,783 153,072 160,726 168,762
32,153 31,000 29,888 28,816 27,783 26,786 25,826 24,900 24,007 23,146 22,316 21,515 20,744 20,000
EPS Forecaster ($000, except per share amounts)
Company Name NETFLIX INC
Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date 52,732
Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date 52,732
Forecasted Price at Valuation Date $15.99
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Fiscal Year of Forecast 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028 12/31/2029
Net Income 18,393 62,017 79,281 92,917 98,782 93,895 98,590 103,519 108,695 114,130 119,836 125,828 132,119 138,725 145,662 152,945 160,592 168,622 177,053 185,905 195,201 204,961 215,209 225,969 237,268
Common Equity Issued (Repurchased) 29,343 17,629 18,300 870 (28,477) (66,628) (69,959) (73,457) (77,130) (80,987) (85,036) (89,288) (93,752) (98,440) (103,362) (108,530) (113,957) (119,654) (125,637) (131,919) (138,515) (145,441) (152,713) (160,348) (168,366)
Forecasted Price at Year End $17.32 $19.05 $20.96 $23.05 $25.36 $27.89 $30.68 $33.75 $37.13 $40.84 $44.92 $49.41 $54.36 $59.79 $65.77 $72.35 $79.58 $87.54 $96.29 $105.92 $116.52 $128.17 $140.98 $155.08 $170.59
New Shares Issued (Repurchased) 1,694 925 873 38 (1,123) (2,389) (2,280) (2,176) (2,078) (1,983) (1,893) (1,807) (1,725) (1,646) (1,572) (1,500) (1,432) (1,367) (1,305) (1,245) (1,189) (1,135) (1,083) (1,034) (987)
Shares Outstanding at End of Year 54,426 55,352 56,225 56,263 55,140 52,751 50,471 48,294 46,217 44,234 42,341 40,534 38,809 37,162 35,591 34,091 32,659 31,292 29,987 28,742 27,553 26,418 25,335 24,301 23,314
Forecast EPS $0.34 $1.13 $1.42 $1.65 $1.77 $1.74 $1.91 $2.10 $2.30 $2.52 $2.77 $3.04 $3.33 $3.65 $4.00 $4.39 $4.81 $5.27 $5.78 $6.33 $6.93 $7.60 $8.32 $9.11 $9.97
Consensus Analyst Forecast of EPS
Forecast Five Year Growth Rate in EPS 38%
Consensus Analyst Forecast of Growth
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