Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following
uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe
them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard
deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and
$800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation
$30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%,
maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum =
25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run
the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.
What is the correlation of the R&D cost with the NPV with reference to the sensitivity
chart?
A) -0.404
B) 0.028
C) 0.908
D) -0.194
Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential
new drug. The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with
clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000. The current market size is estimated to be
around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year. The market share
Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25
percent each year for the next 4 years. A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate
revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150. A discount rate of 8 percent is
assumed.