10) The MBA program at the University of Central Oregon features seven team-taught courses,
five credit hours apiece. Each team is composed of somewhat reluctant professors in two distinct
disciplines, each of which brings his own perspective to the topic du jour. The program is
difficult to coordinate and makes transferring course credit in and out of the program near
impossible, so the MBA Redesign Committee spends three years crafting a new program that
features twenty one courses, two credit hours each, that will unfortunately take 18 months to
complete compared to the current program’s 12 months. The current MBA program brings in
about 60 students each semester with the main selling point being the integration between
disciplines. It is thought that if the new program can be successfully marketed as an easy fit with
other MBA programs in the area, the ability to transfer credits in might attract as many as 70 new
students each semester. If the new program is unveiled but the market is still interested in
integrated courses, enrollment in the new program might drop to 40 students per semester. If this
were the case, the new courses could be scheduled at the same time in the same room and might
attract 65 students each semester (with a 0.6 probability) or might attract as few as 50 students
with a 0.4 probability. If the existing program is retained but the market is seeking courses that
are more transferable, then enrollment in the existing program might fall to 45 new students per
semester. If this happens, then the existing courses might be broken in half each night into two
classes back to back. Doing so has a .7 probability of increasing new student demand to 65 but
has a .3 probability of increasing demand to 55. The MBA Director believes that the market is
ready for a less integrated program, and she pegs the probability of that hunch at 0.6, with a 0.4
probability that the market prefers the current integrated program. What is the difference in
expected outcomes between the two alternatives?
A) 2.2 new students per semester
B) 3.2 new students per semester
C) 3.4 new students per semester
D) 4.4 new students per semester