Chapter 03 – Forecasting
125. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha =
.05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was
19,000, and the trend estimate for last year’s forecast was 1,500?
The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year’s demand for DVD
decoders based on the following historical data:
126. What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
127. What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with
weights of .5, .3, and .2?
128. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if the
forecast for two years ago was 750?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
129. What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?
130. What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha =
0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was
430, and the trend estimate for last year’s forecast was -150?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He
needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the
following data:
131. What is this week’s forecast using the naive approach?
132. What is this week’s forecast using a three-week simple moving average?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
133. What is this week’s forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if the forecast
for two weeks ago was 90?
134. What is this week’s forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
135. What is this week’s forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5
and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75,
and the trend estimate for last week’s forecast was -5?
A concert promoter is forecasting this year’s attendance for one of his concerts based on the
following historical data:
136. What is this year’s forecast using the naive approach?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
137. What is this year’s forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7
and .3?
138. What is this year’s forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year’s
smoothed forecast was 15,000?
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139. What is this year’s forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
140. The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.
What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?
The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year’s summer
session classes based on the following historical data:
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
141. What is this year’s forecast using the naive approach?
142. What is this year’s forecast using a three-year simple moving average?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
143. What is this year’s forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year’s
smoothed forecast was 2600?
144. What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
145. What is this year’s forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month’s (October’s)
demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
146. What is this month’s forecast using the naive approach?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
147. What is this month’s forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights
of .4, .3, .2, and .1?
148. What is this month’s forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August’s
forecast was 145?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
149. What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?
150. What is this month’s forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
151. Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result
from improving short term forecast performance?
152. Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term
forecasting?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
153. Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?
154. Inaccuracies in forecasts along the supply chain lead to:
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
155. Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can
bring into forecasting situations?
156. What is this year’s forecast using the naive approach?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
157. What is this year’s forecast using a four-year simple moving average?
158. What is this year’s forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year’s
smoothed forecast was 45?
159. What are this and next year’s forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
160. What is this year’s forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and
beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the
trend estimate for last year’s forecast was 7?
161. What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?
Chapter 03 – Forecasting
162. What is the spring’s seasonal relative?
163. What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?
164. What is this year’s seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?