Chapter 8—Inflation, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
1. Assume a two-country world: Country A and Country B. Which of the following is correct about
purchasing power parity (PPP) as related to these two countries?
a.
If Country A’s inflation rate exceeds Country B’s inflation rate, Country A’s currency will
weaken.
b.
If Country A’s interest rate exceeds Country B’s inflation rate, Country A’s currency will
weaken.
c.
If Country A’s interest rate exceeds Country B’s inflation rate, Country A’s currency will
strengthen.
d.
If Country B’s inflation rate exceeds Country A’s inflation rate, Country A’s currency will
weaken.
2. Given a home country and a foreign country, purchasing power parity (PPP) suggests that:
a.
a home currency will depreciate if the current home inflation rate exceeds the current
foreign interest rate.
b.
a home currency will appreciate if the current home interest rate exceeds the current
foreign interest rate.
c.
a home currency will appreciate if the current home inflation rate exceeds the current
foreign inflation rate.
d.
a home currency will depreciate if the current home inflation rate exceeds the current
foreign inflation rate.
3. The international Fisher effect (IFE) suggests that:
a.
a home currency will depreciate if the current home interest rate exceeds the current
foreign interest rate.
b.
a home currency will appreciate if the current home interest rate exceeds the current
foreign interest rate.
c.
a home currency will appreciate if the current home inflation rate exceeds the current
foreign inflation rate.
d.
a home currency will depreciate if the current home inflation rate exceeds the current
foreign inflation rate.
4. Because there are a variety of factors in addition to inflation that affect exchange rates, this will:
a.
reduce the probability that PPP shall hold.
b.
increase the probability that PPP shall hold.
c.
increase the probability the IFE will hold.
d.
B and C
5. Because there are sometimes no substitutes for traded goods, this will:
a.
reduce the probability that PPP shall hold.
b.
increase the probability that PPP shall hold.
c.
increase the probability the IFE will hold.
d.
B and C
6. According to the IFE, if British interest rates exceed U.S. interest rates:
a.
the British pound’s value will remain constant.
b.
the British pound will depreciate against the dollar.
c.
the British inflation rate will decrease.
d.
the forward rate of the British pound will contain a premium.
e.
today’s forward rate of the British pound will equal today’s spot rate.
7. Given a home country and a foreign country, the international Fisher effect (IFE) suggests that:
a.
the nominal interest rates of both countries are the same.
b.
the inflation rates of both countries are the same.
c.
the exchange rates of both countries will move in a similar direction against other
currencies.
d.
none of the above
8. Given a home country and a foreign country, purchasing power parity suggests that:
a.
the inflation rates of both countries will be the same.
b.
the nominal interest rates of both countries will be the same.
c.
A and B
d.
none of the above
9. If interest rates on the euro are consistently below U.S. interest rates, then for the international Fisher
effect (IFE) to hold:
a.
the value of the euro would often appreciate against the dollar.
b.
the value of the euro would often depreciate against the dollar.
c.
the value of the euro would remain constant most of the time.
d.
the value of the euro would appreciate in some periods and depreciate in other periods, but
on average have a zero rate of appreciation.
10. If the international Fisher effect (IFE) did not hold based on historical data, then this suggests that:
a.
some corporations with excess cash can lock in a guaranteed higher return on future
foreign short-term investments.
b.
some corporations with excess cash could have generated profits on average from covered
interest arbitrage.
c.
some corporations with excess cash could have generated higher profits on average from
foreign short-term investments than from domestic short-term investments.
d.
most corporations that consistently invest in foreign short-term investments would have
generated the same profits (on average) as from domestic short-term investments.
11. Under purchasing power parity, the future spot exchange rate is a function of the initial spot rate in
equilibrium and:
a.
the income differential.
b.
the forward discount or premium.
c.
the inflation differential.
d.
none of the above
12. According to the international Fisher effect, if U.S. investors expect a 5% rate of domestic inflation
over one year, and a 2% rate of inflation in European countries that use the euro, and require a 3% real
return on investments over one year, the nominal interest rate on one-year U.S. Treasury securities
would be:
a.
2%.
b.
3%.
c.
−2%.
d.
5%.
e.
8%.
13. According to the international Fisher effect, if investors in all countries require the same real rate of
return, the differential in nominal interest rates between any two countries:
a.
follows their exchange rate movement.
b.
is due to their inflation differentials.
c.
is zero.
d.
is constant over time.
e.
C and D
14. Assume that U.S. and British investors require a real return of 2%. If the nominal U.S. interest rate is
15%, and the nominal British rate is 13%, then according to the IFE, the British inflation rate is
expected to be about ____ the U.S. inflation rate, and the British pound is expected to ____.
a.
2 percentage points above; depreciate by about 2%
b.
3 percentage points above; depreciate by about 3%
c.
3 percentage points below; appreciate by about 3%
d.
3 percentage points below; depreciate by about 3%
e.
2 percentage points below; appreciate by about 2%
15. Assume U.S. and Swiss investors require a real rate of return of 3%. Assume the nominal U.S. interest
rate is 6% and the nominal Swiss rate is 4%. According to the international Fisher effect, the franc will
____ by about ____.
a.
appreciate; 3%
b.
appreciate; 1%
c.
depreciate; 3%
d.
depreciate; 2%
e.
appreciate; 2%
16. Assume that the U.S. and Chile nominal interest rates are equal. Then, the U.S. nominal interest rate
decreases while the Chilean nominal interest rate remains stable. According to the international Fisher
effect, this implies expectations of ____ than before, and that the Chilean peso should ____ against the
dollar.
a.
lower U.S. inflation; depreciate
b.
lower U.S. inflation; appreciate
c.
higher U.S. inflation; depreciate
d.
higher U.S. inflation; appreciate
17. According to the international Fisher effect, if Venezuela has a much higher nominal rate than other
countries, its inflation rate will likely be ____ than other countries, and its currency will ____.
a.
lower; strengthen
b.
lower; weaken
c.
higher; weaken
d.
higher; strengthen
18. If interest rate parity holds, then the one-year forward rate of a currency will be ____ the predicted
spot rate of the currency in one year according to the international Fisher effect.
a.
greater than
b.
less than
c.
equal to
d.
answer is dependent on whether the forward rate has a discount or premium
19. The Fisher effect is used to determine the:
a.
real inflation rate.
b.
real interest rate.
c.
real spot rate.
d.
real forward rate.
20. Latin American countries have historically experienced relatively high inflation, and their currencies
have weakened. This information is somewhat consistent with the concept of:
a.
interest rate parity.
b.
locational arbitrage.
c.
purchasing power parity.
d.
the exchange rate mechanism.
21. Assume that the inflation rate in Singapore is 3%, while the inflation rate in the U.S. is 8%. According
to PPP, the Singapore dollar should ____ by ____%.
a.
appreciate; 4.85
b.
depreciate; 3,11
c.
appreciate; 3.11
d.
depreciate; 4.85
22. The inflation rate in the U.S. is 3%, while the inflation rate in Japan is 10%. The current exchange rate
for the Japanese yen (¥) is $0.0075. After supply and demand for the Japanese yen has adjusted in the
manner suggested by purchasing power parity, the new exchange rate for the yen will be:
a.
$0.0076.
b.
$0.0073.
c.
$0.0070.
d.
$0.0066.
23. Assume that the U.S. inflation rate is higher than the New Zealand inflation rate. This will cause U.S.
consumers to ____ their imports from New Zealand and New Zealand consumers to ____ their imports
from the U.S. According to purchasing power parity (PPP), this will result in a(n) ____ of the New
Zealand dollar (NZ$).
a.
reduce; increase; appreciation
b.
increase; reduce; appreciation
c.
reduce; increase; depreciation
d.
reduce; increase; appreciation
24. The following regression analysis was conducted for the inflation rate information and exchange rate
of the British pound:
Regression results indicate that a0 = 0 and a1 = 2. Therefore:
a.
purchasing power parity holds.
b.
purchasing power parity overestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
c.
purchasing power parity underestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
d.
purchasing power parity will overestimate the exchange rate change of the British pound
in the future.
25. Which of the following is indicated by research regarding purchasing power parity (PPP)?
a.
PPP clearly holds in the short run.
b.
Deviations from PPP are reduced in the long run.
c.
PPP clearly holds in the long run.
d.
There is no relationship between inflation differentials and exchange rate movements in
the short run or long run.
26. The interest rate in the U.K. is 7%, while the interest rate in the U.S. is 5%. The spot rate for the
British pound is $1.50. According to the international Fisher effect (IFE), the British pound should
adjust to a new level of:
a.
$1.47.
b.
$1.53.
c.
$1.43.
d.
$1.57.
27. If nominal British interest rates are 3% and nominal U.S. interest rates are 6%, then the British pound
(£) is expected to ____ by about ____%, according to the international Fisher effect (IFE).
a.
depreciate; 2.9
b.
appreciate; 2.9
c.
depreciate; 1.0
d.
appreciate; 1.0
e.
none of the above
28. There is much evidence to suggest that Japanese investors invest in U.S. Treasury securities when U.S.
interest rates are higher than Japanese interest rates. These investors most likely believe in the
international Fisher effect.
a. True
b. False
29. Which of the following is not true regarding IRP, PPP, and the IFE?
a.
IRP suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to interest rate differentials.
b.
PPP suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to inflation differentials.
c.
The IFE suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to interest rate
differentials.
d.
All of the above are true.
30. The relative form of purchasing power parity (PPP) accounts for the possibility of market
imperfections such as transportation costs, tariffs, and quotas in establishing a relationship between
inflation rates and exchange rate changes.
a. True
b. False
31. According to the international Fisher effect (IFE), the exchange rate percentage change should be
approximately equal to the differential in income levels between two countries.
a. True
b. False
32. Research indicates that deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are reduced over the long run.
a. True
b. False
33. The IFE theory suggests that foreign currencies with relatively high interest rates will appreciate
because the high nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation.
a. True
b. False
34. If the IFE theory holds, that means that covered interest arbitrage is not feasible.
a. True
b. False
35. If interest rate parity holds, and the international Fisher effect (IFE) holds, foreign currencies with
relatively high interest rates should have forward discounts and those currencies would be expected to
depreciate.
a. True
b. False
36. Interest rate parity can only hold if purchasing power parity holds.
a. True
b. False
37. If interest rate parity holds, then the international Fisher effect must hold.
a. True
b. False
38. Which of the following theories suggests that the percentage change in spot exchange rate of a
currency should be equal to the inflation differential between two countries?
a.
purchasing power parity (PPP).
b.
triangular arbitrage.
c.
international Fisher effect (IFE).
d.
interest rate parity (IRP).
39. Which of the following theories suggests that the percentage difference between the forward rate and
the spot rate depends on the interest rate differential between two countries?
a.
purchasing power parity (PPP).
b.
triangular arbitrage.
c.
international Fisher effect (IFE).
d.
interest rate parity (IRP).
40. Which of the following theories can be assessed using data that exists at one specific point in time?
a.
purchasing power parity (PPP)
b.
international Fisher effect (IFE).
c.
A and B
d.
interest rate parity (IRP).
41. Which of the following theories suggests the percentage change in spot exchange rate of a currency
should be equal to the interest rate differential between two countries?
a.
absolute form of PPP.
b.
relative form of PPP.
c.
international Fisher effect (IFE).
d.
interest rate parity (IRP).
42. The following regression analysis was conducted for the inflation rate information and exchange rate
of the British pound:
Regression results indicate that a0 = 0 and a1 = 1. Therefore:
a.
purchasing power parity holds.
b.
purchasing power parity overestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
c.
purchasing power parity underestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
d.
purchasing power parity will overestimate the exchange rate change of the British pound
in the future.
43. The following regression analysis was conducted for the inflation rate information and exchange rate
of the British pound:
Regression results indicate that a0 = 0 and a1 = 0.4. Therefore:
a.
purchasing power parity holds.
b.
purchasing power parity overestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
c.
purchasing power parity underestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
d.
purchasing power parity will overestimate the exchange rate change of the British pound
in the future.
44. Assume that the one-year interest rate in the U.S. is 7% and in the U.K. is 5%. According to the
international Fisher effect, British pound’s spot exchange rate should ____ by about ____ over the
year.
a.
depreciate; 1.9%
b.
appreciate; 1.9%
c.
depreciate; 3.94%
d.
appreciate; 3.94%
45. According to the international Fisher effect (IFE):
a.
the nominal rate of return on a foreign investment should be equal to the nominal rate of
return on the domestic investment.
b.
the exchange rate adjusted rate of return on a foreign investment should be equal to the
interest rate on a local money market investment.
c.
the percentage change in the foreign spot exchange rate will be positive if the foreign
interest rate is higher than the local interest rate.
d.
the percentage change in the foreign spot exchange rate will be negative if foreign interest
rate is lower than the local interest rate.
46. Assume that the U.S. one-year interest rate is 5% and the one-year interest rate on euros is 8%. You
have $100,000 to invest and you believe that the international Fisher effect (IFE) holds. The euro’s
spot exchange rate is $1.40. What will be the yield on your investment if you invest in euros?
a.
8%
b.
5%
c.
3%
d.
2.78%
47. Assume that the U.S. one-year interest rate is 3% and the one-year interest rate on Australian dollars is
6%. The U.S. expected annual inflation is 5%, while the Australian inflation is expected to be 7%. You
have $100,000 to invest for one year and you believe that PPP holds. The spot exchange rate of an
Australian dollar is $0.689. What will be the yield on your investment if you invest in the Australian
market?
a.
6%
b.
3%
c.
4%
d.
2%
48. Assume that the international Fisher effect (IFE) holds between the U.S. and the U.K. The U.S.
inflation is expected to be 5%, while British inflation is expected to be 3%. The interest rates offered
on pounds are 7% and U.S. interest rates are 7%. What does this say about real interest rates expected
by British investors?
a.
real interest rates expected by British investors are equal to the interest rates expected by
U.S. investors.
b.
real interest rates expected by British investors are 2 percentage points lower than the real
interest rates expected by U.S. investors.
c.
real interest rates expected by British investors are 2 percentage points above the real
interest rates expected by U.S. investors.
d.
IFE doesn’t hold in this case because the U.S. inflation is higher than the British inflation,
but the interest rates offered in both countries are equal.
49. The international Fisher effect (IFE) suggests that the currencies with relatively high interest rates will
appreciate because those high rates will attract investment and increase the demand for that currency.
a. True
b. False
50. If purchasing power parity holds, then the Fisher effect must also hold.
a. True
b. False
51. If the international Fisher effect (IFE) holds, the local investors are expected to earn the same return
from investing internationally as they would from investing in their local markets.
a. True
b. False
52. Assume that inflation in the U.S. is expected to be 9%, while inflation in Australia is expected to be
5% over the next year. Today you receive an offer to purchase a one-year put option for $.03 per unit
on Australian dollars at a strike price of $0.72. Today the Australian dollar is quoted at $0.70. You
believe that purchasing power parity holds. You should accept the offer.
a. True
b. False
53. Assume that the interest rate offered on pounds is 5% and the pound is expected to depreciate by 1.5%.
For the international Fisher effect (IFE) to hold between the U.K. and the U.S., the U.S. interest rate
should be ____.
a.
3.43%
b.
5.68%
c.
6.5%
d.
7.3%
54. Purchasing power parity (PPP) focuses on the relationship between nominal interest rates and
exchange rates between two countries.
a. True
b. False
55. According to the international fisher effect (IFE), the exchange rate percentage change should be
approximately equal to the differential in income levels between two countries.
a. True
b. False
56. According to purchasing power parity (PPP), if a foreign country’s inflation rate is below the inflation
rate at home, home country consumers will increase their imports from the foreign country and foreign
consumers will lower their demand for home country products. These market forces cause the foreign
currency to appreciate.
a. True
b. False
57. According to the IFE, when the nominal interest rate at home exceeds the nominal interest rate in the
foreign country, the home currency should depreciate.
a. True
b. False
58. The inflation rate in the U.S. is 4%, while the inflation rate in Japan is 1.5%. The current exchange rate
for the Japanese yen (¥) is $0.0080. After supply and demand for the Japanese yen has adjusted
according to purchasing power parity, the new exchange rate for the yen will be
a.
$0.0078.
b.
$0.0082.
c.
$0.0111.
d.
$0.00492.
e.
None of the above
59. Assume that the New Zealand inflation rate is higher than the U.S. inflation rate. This will cause U.S.
consumers to ____ their imports from New Zealand and New Zealand consumers to ____ their imports
from the U.S. According to purchasing power parity (PPP), this will result in a(n) ____ of the New
Zealand dollar (NZ$).
a.
reduce; increase; appreciation
b.
increase; reduce; depreciation
c.
reduce; increase; depreciation
d.
reduce; increase; appreciation
60. The following regression was conducted for the exchange rate of the Cyprus pound (CYP):
Regression results indicate that a0 = 0 and a1 = 2. Therefore,
a.
purchasing power parity holds.
b.
purchasing power parity overestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
c.
purchasing power parity underestimated the exchange rate change during the period under
examination.
d.
purchasing power parity will overestimate the exchange rate change of the Cyprus pound
in the future.
61. Among the reasons that purchasing power parity (PPP) does not consistently occur are:
a.
exchange rates are affected by interest rate differentials.
b.
exchange rates are affected by national income differentials and government controls.
c.
supply and demand may not adjust if no substitutable goods are available.
d.
all of the above are reasons that PPP does not consistently occur.
62. Which of the following is not true regarding IRP, PPP, and the IFE?
a.
IRP suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to interest rate differentials.
b.
PPP suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to inflation differentials.
c.
The IFE suggests that a currency’s spot rate will change according to interest rate
differentials.
d.
All of the above are true.