deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and
$800,000,000.
Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation
$30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%,
maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%.
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum =
25%, and most likely = 20%.
The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run
the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform.
What cumulative profit in the fifth year is likely to be realized with a probability of
0.50?
A) $78,244,098
B) $101,970,955
C) $144,058,696
D) $203,676,827
What is the formula used to calculate the value of bt in the linear trend equation Ft+k =
at + btk while using double exponential smoothing?
A) bt = β(bt – bt–1) + (1 –β)bt–1
B) bt = αFt–1 + (1 – α)(at +1 + bt+1)
C) bt = αFt + (1 – α)(at –1 + bt-1)
D) bt = β(at – at–1) + (1 –β)bt–1