13-7
If Charles were to use an option hedge, he would buy 30-day put options that would
expire to coincide with the announcement of the bid’s success. At current option prices,
these would cost USD 23,750 per hedge in premiums (€2.5 million USD 0.0095 per
euro). One third of the time, the option would not be needed—when the bid was not
successful. In these cases, the most that could be lost would be the amount of the
premium, which, at USD 23,750, is considerably less than the potential loss from the
10. Long-term currency risk management.
An important underlying assumption for locking-in long-term exposures is that the
exposures have a high probability of occurring. The problem described is based on an
actual case. Following the dramatic fall in the mobile telephone markets beginning in the
second half of 2000, the European company revised sharply downward its purchases. The
Singapore company found itself with long-term forward contracts substantially in excess
of the revised future expected revenues. A partial unwinding of these contracts has
produced losses at the same time as their core business has suffered.
Operating and financing strategies that can help manage long-term exposures include
trying to match cash flows. The Singapore company could buy some of its components
from European suppliers and thereby match part of its revenues with expenses in euros. It
could also try to finance in euros or enter into a swap agreement to create a euro cash
outflow.