69. You are given the opportunity to play a game of high stakes gambling. The game begins by you paying
an entry fee of $35,000,000 followed by a fair coin toss. If the coin toss is “heads” then you have an
80% probability of receiving a perpetuity of $10,000,000 per year and a 20% probability of receiving a
perpetuity of $1,000,000 per year. Assume that the proper discount rate for the perpetual cash flow is
10%. If the coin toss is “tails”you can continue to play but you will lose $50,000,000 with certainty.
Alternatively, you can make a make an opt-out payment of $10,000,000 after a “tail” to prevent you
from going down such a costly path. What is the present value of playing such a game?
70. The right but not the obligation to produce oil from one of your existing oil wells can be described as
71. You are the owner of a natural gas well that can produce exactly (at today’s prices) $1,000,000 worth
of gas per year for exactly 5 years. You also know (with certainty) that the correct discount rate for
these revenues is 10%. An oil and gas production firm offers you $5,000,000 today for the natural gas
well. What is the implied value of the real option to not produce or not to produce natural gas?
72. The going rate for paying a CEO in the widget industry is $1,000,000 per year. You find that the CEO
of MasterWidgets has a contract that pays him $1,200,000 per year for five years if he cannot work for
any other firm (for any reason during the contractual period). What is the value of a real option for a
CEO to not work for a firm other than MasterWidgets? Assume a discount rate of 10%.