You are planning to produce a new action figure called “Hillary”. However, you are
very uncertain about the demand for the product. If it is a hit, you will have net cash
flows of $50 million per year for 3 years (starting next year). If it fails, you will only
have net cash flows of $10 million per year for 2 years (starting next year). There is an
equal chance that it will be a hit or failure (probability = 50%). You will not know
whether it is a hit or a failure until the first year’s cash flows are in. You have to spend
$80 million immediately for equipment and the rights to produce the figure. If the
discount rate is 10%, calculate the NPV without the abandonment option.
A. -9.15
B. +13.99
C. +9.15
D. -14.4
Petroleum Inc. owns a lease to extract crude oil from sea. It is considering the
construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $50 million (I0) and is expected to remain
constant. The price of oil is $50/bbl and the extraction costs are $20/bbl. The quantity
of oil Q = 200,000 bbl per year forever. The risk-free rate is 10% per year, which is also
the cost of capital (Ignore taxes). Suppose the oil price is uncertain and can be $70/bbl