United Plastics Company produces large plastic cups in a variety of colors. United can
produce plain plastic cups that are sold in department stores in inexpensive ten cup
bundles. Alternatively, United can sell Novelty Cups which are imprinted with slogans
and designs. The printed cups cost more to produce, but they sell for a higher price. The
appropriate strategy for United depends upon the state of the economy. Plain cups do
better during a recession, while Novelty Cups earn higher profits during normal
economic conditions. During a recession, United will earn a $100,000 profit selling
plain cups and $40,000 with the Novelty line. Under normal economic conditions,
United will earn $120,000 with the plain cups and a $200,000 profit with Novelty Cups.
United currently does not use economic forecasts and simply assigns equal probabilities
to a recession and normal conditions.
a. Using the probabilities assumed by United, what is the expected value of each
alternative? Which alternative should the firm pursue? (Your recommendation should
include separate recommendations for alternative attitudes toward risk.)
b. Calculate and interpret the value to the firm of complete information.