Amanda is a troubleshooter for a major manufacturing firm. A particular facility has
experienced problems with quality for several years. In addition, there have been some
major problems with the facility’s labor union. A bitter strike, lasting six months,
occurred prior to signing the current contract. Past management teams have visited and
inspected the site but have been unable to achieve change, despite detailed study and
recommendations. Recently, sales of the facility’s product line have declined in the face
of increased import competition from an East Asian country, and this is unlikely to
change in the near future. Currently, the Board is considering two new courses of
action. One is retooling the facility to manufacture a new line of products. This would
involve capital costs of several millions of dollars. It would also mean that there would
be no production from the facility while retooling and retraining takes place. The
second option is closing down the facility. This would involve costs in the form of
termination benefits, as well as funding some pension benefits of senior employees.
There appear to be no buyers for the plant, and it would likely remain idle for some
time, while continuing to be a tax drain on the company. How would Amanda use the
steps of decision-making and the concept of value maximization to recommend a
course of action to the Board? Explain.
Explain how Bayes Theorem is used to revise probabilities.