represents roughly 25 of every 1,000 homes, or a prevalence rate of c. 2%. Also in 2016,
the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program received a total of more than 1.5
Addressing Some Troubling Questions
CVIV.KARM.20.04.04 – Identify trends in murders, aggravated assaults, and
robberies in the United States according to official statistics.
47. Contrast annual victimization rates with lifetime likelihoods and explain how this contrast affects perceptions, both of
individual risk and of crime as a social problem. Also, distinguish between prevalence rates and lifetime likelihoods. What
is one variable that can affect the accuracy of lifetime likelihood projections?
People may develop a false sense of security from considering only annual victimization
rates, which make crimes appear rare and unlikely to happen to most individuals.
However, lifetime likelihoods, which project the cumulative risks of victimization over 60
years or more (starting at age 12), make crimes appear much more likely to happen to
individuals. They also present a view of crime today as a much more serious social
problem than annual rates show. Prevalence rates reflect past and current victimization,
referring only to those in the population who have already experienced it, whereas lifetime
likelihoods estimate what the total of past, current, and future victimization might be,
referring to the whole population. One variable that can affect the accuracy of lifetime
projections is that they are based on current or recent rates, which could go up or down
over time.
Predicting the Chances of Becoming a Victim Someday: Projecting Cumulative
Risks
CVIV.KARM.20.04.08 – List the strengths and weaknesses of statistical
projections related to differential and cumulative risks.
48. Discuss the prevalence of burglaries in general and residential burglaries in particular, including their psychological
impact and recent statistics and their interpretation. Summarize the overall trend in burglaries from the 1970s–1980s to
2016, including statistics.
Among all serious index crimes tracked by the FBI, burglaries are the most common.
Although there are more larcenies, that is, all types of thefts, more than half of those are
petty larcenies incurring only minor losses, whereas burglaries tend to be more upsetting,
especially residential ones. Victims feel their personal space has been violated, and often