Chapter 8 Alternative Investments 101
The gold
is obtained by running a regression of the percentage price movements in the gold mine
stock on the percentage price movements in gold bullion. It indicates the stock market price sensitivity
to gold.
a. Explain why a gold mine with a high production cost should have a value that is more sensitive
to gold price movements than a gold mine with low production costs.
b. Which mine would you buy and why?
c. What is your expected return, given this scenario?
14. G.O. Bug wants to invest $12,000 in gold. In December, the spot price of gold is $400 per ounce.
Bug is very confident that gold will appreciate by at least 10% before the end of January and is
willing to assume fairly risky positions to maximize the return on this forecast. Bug is considering
several alternatives:
• Gold bullion. Bug could buy 30 ounces, or roughly 1 kilogram.
• Gold futures. Bug could buy February futures. These contracts trade at $413 per ounce, with an
initial margin of $1,500 per contract of 100 ounces. Therefore, Bug could buy eight contracts
(12,000/1,500).
• Gold options. Bug considers two February call options with different strike prices. Each option
contract covers 100 ounces. The February 410 call quotes at $8 per ounce; the February 430 call
quotes at $4 per ounce. Therefore, Bug could buy fifteen contracts of the first option or thirty
contracts of the second option.
• Two gold mines. Mines A and B have the same stock price: $10 per share. A British broker has
estimated the gold
of both mines using a discounted cash flow model as well as historical
regression analysis. Mine A is a rich mine with a gold
equal to 2; mine B has much higher
production costs with a gold
equal to 5. Bug could buy 1,200 shares of one of the gold mines.
Bug quickly rules out investing directly in bullion, which does not offer enough leverage.
a. Assuming that Bug’s expectations are realized by the end of February, compute the realized
returns on the various alternative strategies considered. Simulate various values of the spot price
of gold in February (320, 360, 380, 400, 420, and 480).
b. Which investment strategy would you suggest to Bug?