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CHAPTER 26—REAL OPTIONS
TRUE/FALSE
1. Real options exist when managers have the opportunity, after a project has been implemented, to make
operating changes in response to changed conditions that modify the project's cash flows.
2. Real options are options to buy real assets, like stocks, rather than interest-bearing assets, like bonds.
3. The option to abandon a project is a real option, but a call option on a stock is not a real option.
4. Real options are most valuable when the underlying source of risk is very low.
5. Real options affect the size, but not the risk, of a project's expected cash flows.
MULTIPLE CHOICE
6. Whether to invest in a project today or to postpone the decision until next year is a decision facing the
CEO of the Aaron Co. The project has a positive expected NPV, but its cash flows could be less than
expected, in which case the NPV could be negative. No competitors are likely to invest in a similar
project if Aaron decides to wait. Which of the following statements best describes the issues that
Aaron faces when considering this investment timing option?
a.
The more uncertainty about the future cash flows, the more logical it is for Aaron to go
ahead with this project today.
b.
Since the project has a positive expected NPV today, this means that its expected NPV
will be even higher if it chooses to wait a year.
c.
Since the project has a positive expected NPV today, this means that it should be accepted
in order to lock in that NPV.
d.
Waiting would probably reduce the project's risk.
e.
The investment timing option does not affect the cash flows and will therefore have no
impact on the project's risk.
7. Which one of the following is an example of a "flexibility" option?
a.
A company has an option to close down an operation if it turns out to be unprofitable.
b.
A company agrees to pay more to build a plant in order to be able to change the plant's
inputs and/or outputs at a later date if conditions change.
c.
A company invests in a project today to gain knowledge that may enable it to expand into
different markets at a later date.
d.
A company invests in a jet aircraft so that its CEO, who must travel frequently, can arrive
for distant meetings feeling less tired than if he had to fly commercial.
e.
A company has an option to invest in a project today or to wait a year.
8. Which of the following is NOT a real option?
a.
The option to buy shares of stock if its price goes up.
b.
The option to expand into a new geographic region.
c.
The option to abandon a project.
d.
The option to switch the type of fuel used in an industrial furnace.
e.
The option to expand production if the product is successful.
9. Which of the following will NOT increase the value of a real option?
a.
An increase in the volatility of the underlying source of risk.
b.
An increase in the risk-free rate.
c.
An increase in the cost of obtaining the real option.
d.
A decrease in the probability that a competitor will enter the market of the project in
question.
e.
Lengthening the time in which a real option must be exercised.
10. Which of the following is most CORRECT?
a.
Real options change the risk, but not the size, of projects' expected cash flows.
b.
Real options are likely to reduce the cost of capital that should be used to discount a
project's expected cash flows.
c.
Very few projects actually have real options.
d.
Real options are less valuable when there is a lot of uncertainty about the true values
future sales and costs.
e.
Real options change the size, but not the risk, of projects' expected cash flows.
11. Ashgate Enterprises uses the NPV method for selecting projects, and it does a reasonably good job of
estimating projects' sales and costs. However, it never considers real options that might be associated
with projects. Which of the following statements is most likely to describe its situation?
a.
Its estimated capital budget is probably too large due to its failure to consider
abandonment and growth options.
b.
Failing to consider abandonment and flexibility options probably makes the optimal
capital budget too large, but failing to consider growth and timing options probably makes
the optimal capital budget too small, so it is unclear what impact not considering real
options has on the overall capital budget.
c.
Failing to consider abandonment and flexibility options probably makes the optimal
capital budget too small, but failing to consider growth and timing options probably makes
the optimal capital budget too large, so it is unclear what impact not considering real
options has on the overall capital budget.
d.
Real options should not have any effect on the size of the optimal capital budget.
e.
Its estimated capital budget is probably too small, because projects' NPVs are often larger
when real options are taken into account.
12. Refer to Exhibit 26.1. Since the project is considered to be quite risky, a 20% cost of capital is used.
What is the project's expected NPV, in thousands of dollars?
a.
$336.15
b.
$373.50
c.
$415.00
d.
$461.11
e.
$507.22
13. Refer to Exhibit 26.1. Calculate the project's coefficient of variation. (Hint: Use the expected NPV.)
a.
5.87
b.
6.52
c.
7.25
d.
7.97
e.
8.77
14. Refer to Exhibit 26.2. Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%, if NPC chooses to wait a
year before proceeding, how much will this increase or decrease the project's expected NPV in today's
dollars (i.e., at t = 0), relative to the NPV if it proceeds today?
a.
$77.23
b.
$85.81
c.
$95.34
d.
$105.94
e.
$116.53
15. Refer to Exhibit 26.2. Calculate the effect of waiting on the project's risk, using the same data. By how
much will delaying reduce the project's coefficient of variation? (Hint: Use the expected NPV.)
a.
2.23
b.
2.46
c.
2.70
d.
2.97
e.
3.27
16. Refer to Exhibit 26.3. Based on the above data, what is the project's net present value?
a.
−$1,312,456
b.
−$1,104,607
c.
−$875,203
d.
$105,999
e.
$321,788
17. Refer to Exhibit 26.3. If Garner-Wagner goes ahead with this project today, it will obtain knowledge
that will give rise to additional opportunities 5 years from now (at t = 5). The company can decide at t
= 5 whether or not it wants to pursue these additional opportunities. Based on the best information
available today, there is a 35% probability that the outlook will be favorable, in which case the future
investment opportunity will have a net present value of $6 million at t = 5. There is a 65% probability
that the outlook will be unfavorable, in which case the future investment opportunity will have a net
present value of −$6 million at t = 5. Garner-Wagner does not have to decide today whether it wants to
pursue the additional opportunity. Instead, it can wait to see what the outlook is. However, the
company cannot pursue the future opportunity unless it makes the $3 million investment today. What
is the estimated net present value of the project, after consideration of the potential future opportunity?
a.
−$1,104,607
b.
−$875,203
c.
$199,328
d.
$561,947
e.
$898,205
18. Refer to Exhibit 26.4. Based on the above information, what is the Z−90's expected net present value?
a.
−$6,678
b.
−$3,251
c.
$15,303
d.
$20,004
e.
$45,965
19. Refer to Exhibit 26.4. Now assume that one year from now SI will know if the Z−45 has become the
industry standard. Also assume that after receiving the cash flows at t = 1, SI has the option to abandon
the project, in which case it will receive an additional $100,000 at t = 1 but no cash flows after t = 1.
Assuming that the cost of capital remains at 12%, what is the estimated value of the abandonment
option?
a.
$0
b.
$2,075
c.
$4,067
d.
$8,945
e.
$10,745
