Suppose that the cumulative probability of a company defaulting by years one, two,
three and four are 3%, 6.5%, 10%, and 14.5%, respectively. What is the probability of
default in the fourth year conditional on no earlier default?
A. 4.5%
B. 5.0%
C. 5.5%
D. 6.0%
Which of the following is true for a consumption commodity?
A. There is no limit to how high or low the futures price can be, except that the futures
price cannot be negative
B. There is a lower limit to the futures price but no upper limit
C. There is an upper limit to the futures price but no lower limit, except that the futures
price cannot be negative
D. The futures price can be determined with reasonable accuracy from the spot price
and interest rates