Alternatives 1 and 2 in the following payoff table represent the two possible
manufacturing strategies that the EKA manufacturing company can adopt. The level of
demand affects the success of both strategies. The states of nature (SI) represent the
levels of demand for the company products. S1, S2, and S3 characterize high, medium,
and low demand, respectively. The payoff values are in thousands of dollars.
The management believes that weather conditions significantly affect the level of
demand. 48 monthly sales reports are randomly selected. These monthly sales reports
show 15 months with high demand, 28 months with medium demand, and 5 months
with low demand. 12 of the 15 months with high demand had favorable weather
conditions. 14 of the 28 months with medium demand had favorable weather
conditions. Only 1 of the 5 months with low demand had favorable weather conditions.
Based on this information, the prior probabilities have been revised. If the weather
conditions are favorable, P(S1) = .4286, P(S2) = .5357, and P(S3) = .0357; and if the
weather conditions are poor, P(S1) = .1364, P(S2) = .6818, and P(S3) = .1818. It is also
determined that the probability of favorable weather is 0.56 and the probability of poor
weather is 0.44.
Carry out a preposterior analysis and, using the revised probabilities, determine (1) the
expected monetary value when the weather conditions are favorable and (2) the
expected monetary value when the weather conditions are poor.