You are hired as a consultant to advise a small firm on forecasting methodology. Based
on your research you find the company has a MAD of 3. Its wants to have a 99.7
percent control limits on its forecasting system. It’s most recent tracking signal value is
15. What should be your report to the company?
A. The forecasting model is operating acceptably
B. The forecasting model is out of control and needs to be corrected
C. The MAD value is incorrect
D. The upper control value is less than 20
E. The company is using an inappropriate forecasting methodology
Answer:
If a vendor has correctly used marginal analysis to select their stock levels for the day
(as in the newsperson problem), and the profit resulting from the last unit being sold
(Cu) is $120 and the loss resulting from that unit if it is not sold (Co) is $360, which of