Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4?
Cold & Calculating
The cold, calculating father did exactly that when examining the 27 year old failure to
launch man child that had turned his walk in closet into a bedroom. As he saw it, there
were five alternatives; each had its advantages and disadvantages, and under different
circumstances, each had a different financial incentive. He laid it all out neatly in a
table, but as not to arouse suspicion, he left the table’s labels very generic, so the
alternatives were simply labeled A through E while the different circumstances were
simply numbered one through three. He flicked the gray ash off of his favorite purple
smoking jacket and pondered the best course of action under each possible future. It
was good to be devious, he decided.
The cold, calculating father had little reason for optimism and tended towards a
pessimistic view of the entire world. Still, it might be useful to see what the other half
thinks, he thought to himself. Identify the optimal alternatives under these two opposite
views of the world.