Chapter 06: Interest Rates
Copyright Cengage Learning. Powered by Cognero.
problems that addressed the problem of forecasting forward rates based on yield curve data. In this edition, we leaned
more toward easy problems that address intuitive aspects of interest rate theory.
We should note one issue that can be confusing if it is not handled carefully – the use of arithmetic versus geometric
averages when bringing inflation into interest rate determination in yield curve related problems. It is easy to explain why
a 2-year rate is an average of two 1-year rates, and it is logical to use a compounding process that is essentially a
geometric average that includes the effects of cross-product terms. It is also easy to explain that average inflation rates
should be calculated as geometric averages. However, when we combine inflation with interest rates, rather than using
the formulation rRF = [(1 + r*)(1 + IP)] – 1, almost everyone, from Federal Reserve officials down to textbook authors,
uses the approximation rRF = r* + IP. Understandably, this can confuse students when they start working problems. In
both the text and test bank problems we make it clear to students which procedure to use.
Quite a few of the problems are based on this basic equation: r = r* + IP + MRP + DRP + LP. We tell our students to
keep this equation in mind, and that they will have to do some transposing of terms to solve some of the problems.
The other key equation used in the problems is the one for finding the 1-year forward rate, given the current 1-year and
2-year rates: (1 + 2-year rate)2 = (1 + 1-year rate)(1 + X), which converts to X = (1 + 2yr)2/(1 + 1yr) – 1, where X is the
1-year forward rate. This equation, which is used in a number of problems, assumes that the pure expectations theory is
correct and thus the maturity risk premium is zero.
55. Suppose 1-year T-bills currently yield 7.00% and the future inflation rate is expected to be constant at 4.70% per year.
What is the real risk-free rate of return, r*? Disregard any cross-product terms, i.e., if averaging is required, use the
arithmetic average.
a. 2.81%
b. 2.48%
c. 2.23%
d. 2.12%
e. 2.30%
56. Suppose the real risk-free rate is 3.50% and the future rate of inflation is expected to be constant at 4.60%. What rate
of return would you expect on a 1-year Treasury security, assuming the pure expectations theory is valid? Disregard cross-
product terms, i.e., if averaging is required, use the arithmetic average.
a. 6.08%
b. 10.13%