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According to official statistics for the United States, since the Great Depression:
economists are confident that the business cycle has been tamed.
the economy has constantly had positive real GDP growth rates.
the economy had longer recessions than expansions only during the 1960s and
1990s.
the economy has not had another severe and prolonged economic downturn
comparable to it.
A depression occurs when:
both output and employment increase.
the economic downturn becomes extremely deep and prolonged.
both price level and unemployment increase.
output rises but employment remains unchanged.
Long-run growth is the sustained upward trend in:
aggregate output per person over several decades.
the unemployment rate over time.
interest rates over time.
aggregate output per person over the business cycle.
sustained upward trend in aggregate output per person over several decades.
expansion phase of business cycles.
downturn phase of business cycles.
sustained downward trend in the employment rate over several decades.
sustained upward trend in the economy’s overall output per person, which
generates higher incomes and a higher standard of living for its members.
increase in the rate of inflation across time, which reduces real salaries.
increase in the overall output of the economy over a three- or four-year period.
reduction in the price level over decades.
Historical evidence shows that for determining a country’s living standards, over:
an extended period, long-run growth is just as important as the business cycle.
short periods, long-run growth is less important than the business cycle.
an extended period, long-run growth is much more important than the business
cycle.
long periods, it is difficult to determine whether the business cycle or long-run
growth is more important.