35.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“[Bybon, a Greek of the sixth century B.C.] threw a 315-pound block of red sandstone over
his head. The feat was reported after archaeologists found a description of Bybon’s act
inscribed on the rock itself.”
—The Book of Lists
Probably true. We think this may be true; there are people around now who could perform
this feat. (It isn’t said how far Bybon threw the rock.) Notice, however, that the
documentation of Bybon’s act would be a little difficult to corroborate at this point.
36.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Lottery director Mark Michalko said Thursday that allegations that Californians are
squandering money they once used for food to buy lottery tickets ‘are just not correct.’…
California Grocers Association president Don Beaver raised the issue earlier in the week,
saying five supermarket chains had complained that grocery sales dropped about 5
percent after lottery tickets went on sale October 3.”
—Sacramento Bee
Cannot properly be evaluated. Based just on information contained in this news item, we’d
suspend judgment on the question of whether lottery sales have diminished food sales.
37.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“The great preponderance of lottery players are from the lowest third of the population in
terms of income levels. It is mainly the poor who are being exploited by state lotteries.”
—A sociology professor at a state university in the Midwest, in a radio interview
Requires further documentation. We’d want to know if this claim is backed up by a study.
Presumably there is some evidence on which the remark is based rather than just the
professor’s guesswork. Notice the use of the term “exploited” in the second sentence. This
tells us something about the speaker’s views on lotteries.
38.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“NASA [the National Aeronautics and Space Administration] says private investors, not
taxpayers, will fund its newest manned space vehicle. If you believe that, you probably
think little green men inhabit Mars.”
—Forbes
Requires further documentation. Although Forbes magazine has a good reputation for
knowing something about private investment, we’d have to hear a lot of discussion before
we would make an intelligent decision on the truth or falsity of a claim like this.
39.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“[G]ram for gram, trans fat [found in hydrogenated oil] is nearly as bad for your blood-
cholesterol levels as saturated fat is…. Brandeis University scientists… concluded that
trans fats may be worse than saturated fats….”
—Consumer Reports On Health
Probably true. Given the care with which Consumers Union magazines usually make their
reports, we give this a “probably true.”
40.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Barack Obama is a citizen of both the United States and the Republic of Kenya.
—an online article run in August, 2008, by the
Rocky Mountain News
Probably false. The article fueled Internet rumors about Obama’s eligibility for the
presidency, but the newspaper later said the claim was false and published an apology for
the mistake.
4-24
41.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Contrary to popular belief, ‘The Star–Spangled Banner’ has been the nation’s official song
only since 1931.”
—James Kilpatrick, syndicated columnist
Probably true. We’d be very surprised if Kilpatrick were mistaken about a fact like this.
Essay Questions
42.
In a brief essay, explain what factors help establish someone as an expert.
Answers will vary
43.
In a brief essay, discuss three ways a person can increase his or her background
knowledge.
Answers will vary
4-25
44.
Are there conditions in which your own observations may not be totally reliable? Explain in
a brief essay.
Answers will vary
45.
In a brief essay, provide several topics on which you may not trust yourself to give a totally
unbiased judgment, and explain.
Answers will vary
46.
In a brief essay, discuss the conditions under which it is reasonable to regard an
eyewitness account as credible.
Answers will vary
47.
In a brief essay, discuss the news media as a source of information about current events.
Answers will vary
4-26
48.
If the claims of an expert turn out to be in error, were you unreasonable in having accepted
them in the first place? Why, or why not? Explain your response in a brief essay.
Answers will vary
49.
In a brief essay, discuss how to handle a conflict between the opinions of experts who do
not agree.
Answers will vary
50.
In a brief essay, explain why you suppose sensationalism (as found in supermarket
tabloids, for example) has such a wide audience despite its frequent conflicts with our
background information.
Answers will vary
51.
In a brief essay, make up an issue and a list of sources and give your own ranking of the
credibility of the sources you listed.
Answers will vary
4-27
52.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion on the foreign policy of
the current administration is more credible.
a. a former U.S. president of the same political party as the current president
b. a former U.S. president not of the same political party as the current president
Answers will vary
53.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion on the foreign policy of
the current administration is more credible.
a. a Ph.D. in political science whose specialty is U.S. foreign policy
b. the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Answers will vary
54.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion on the condition of the
tires on your car is more credible.
a. a salesperson at Goodyear
b. a mechanic at a garage certified by the American Automobile Association
Answers will vary
4-28
55.
Issue: A proposal for legislation regarding automobile insurance rates is on the ballot.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion on the benefits for
consumers is more credible.
a. a spokesperson for the insurance industry
b. Ralph Nader
Answers will vary
56.
Is the pitcher tiring? Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion is
the more credible.
a. a minor league pitching coach
b. Reggie Jackson
Answers will vary
57.
Did life evolve, or was it created? Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss
whose opinion is the more credible.
a. a biologist
b. a minister
Answers will vary
4-29
58.
Can you get a manzanita tree to grow in Pennsylvania? Giving at least one reason for your
choice, discuss whose opinion is the more credible.
a. a Pennsylvania (where manzanita doesn’t grow naturally) nursery worker
b. a California (where manzanita does grow naturally) nursery worker
Answers will vary
59.
What percentage of American high school students have smoked marijuana? Giving at
least one reason for your choice, discuss whose opinion is the more credible.
a.
USA Today
b. Americans for Legalized Marijuana (ALM)
Answers will vary
60.
How many homicides involve the use of a stolen firearm? Giving at least one reason for
your choice, discuss whose opinion is the more credible.
a. a Democratic U.S. senator
b. a Republican U.S. senator
Answers will vary
4-30
61.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, which of two current movies would you be more
apt to like?
a. one recommended by a movie critic whose opinions you enjoy listening to
b. one recommended by a friend
Answers will vary
62.
Giving at least one reason for your choice, discuss whose would be the best weight-lifting
regimen to follow.
a. Arnold Schwarzenegger
b. Paris Hilton
Answers will vary
4-31
63.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: In the O. J. Simpson murder case, did the judge rule correctly in admitting evidence
that was obtained at Simpson’s house before a search warrant was issued?
a. a well-known defense attorney who heads the American Trial Lawyers Association
b. the former district attorney for Los Angeles County
c. a retired judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals
We put (c) way out in front, and the other two equally biased on opposite sides of the
issue.
4-32
64.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Should lawyers allow their clients to lie?
a. the U.S. Supreme Court
b. a law school professor
c. a political science professor
d. the American Bar Association
e. a practicing defense attorney
This question is not so straightforward and simple as it might seem. For instance, has a
client who is forced to tell the truth in effect been denied an effective defense? Can one
even know that one’s client has lied? In forming our opinion on the subject, we’d be most
influenced by the reasoning of the person who seemed to have the best grasp of the
various subsidiary issues involved. In other words, in this case it’s the reasoning rather
than the credentials of the reasoner that will carry the most weight. (We would not
anticipate that any of the sources listed would be deficient in powers of reasoning.)
65.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Whether a recently completed nuclear power plant is safe.
a. the power company that owns the plant
b. the contractor in charge of the plant’s construction
c. a spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Agency
d. the president of the Sierra Club
e. a contractor hired by a nearby city who has seen the blueprints of the plant but has not
made an on-site inspection
f. the author of a statistical study on safety, malfunctions, and accidents at power plants
of the same type
Our ranking: (f), a gap, then (c), (e), then (a) = (b) = (d). We would not put too much
confidence in any of the sources listed, as a matter of fact. The last alternative, (f), is
hypothetical; there are relatively few nuclear power plants of any one type; their
construction has so far been “custom”—that is, idiosyncratic.
4-34
66.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Whether the verdict in the O. J. Simpson civil trial proves that Simpson was actually
guilty of the crime of which he was acquitted in the criminal trial.
a. a professor of criminal law
b. Greta Van Susteren (lawyer and commentator on the Simpson trials for CNN and now a
host on Fox)
c. Oprah Winfrey
d. Geraldo Rivera
We’d take the views of (a), or, with some reservation, (b). The professor could be counted
on to have a correct answer; but it may be that Van Susteren has had more experience in
putting such things in terms laypeople can understand. (Of course, some would say she’s
had more experience sensationalizing such issues.) Winfrey and Rivera might get it right,
but they’d be repeating something they learned from their researchers.
4-35
67.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Does violence on television contribute to violent behavior on the part of young
viewers?
a. the president of the National Association of Broadcasters
b. the president of an organization called “Parents Against TV Violence”
c. a university sociologist
d. regular panel members of a program such as “The McLaughlin Group”
We rank (c) first, followed by (b), who would be ahead of (a). We do know what side (b) is
on from the outset, of course, but that’s somewhat different from having a vested interest
in one side of the issue in the way that (a) does. We find most of the people like those
mentioned in (d) to be full of hot air on most subjects.
68.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Are schools of business turning out too many ill-prepared M.B.A. graduates?
a. the dean of the school of business at the University of Chicago
b. the president of the Hewlett-Packard Corporation
c. an editorial in the
Wall Street Journal
d. a recent graduate with an M.B.A.
Our ranking: (c), (b), (a), (d).
69.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Do mountain bicycles cause ecological damage when ridden on hiking trails?
a. an environmental scientist at the Harvard School of Public Health
b. the chair of the Sierra Club task force for determining club policy on the wilderness use
of mountain bicycles
c. a spokesperson for a bicycle manufacturer
d. a park ranger from a state park where mountain bicycles have been permitted on hiking
trails
e. a representative of the Washington Mountain Bike Riders’ Association
Our ranking: (d) = (b) first, then (e) = (c) = (a).
4-37
70.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: How do the economic policies of the Venezuelan government affect the standard of
living of most Venezuelans?
a. the editor of a daily newspaper in a small town
b. a friend who just returned from a trip to Venezuela “to see what was going on”
c. a professor of Latin American studies at Ohio State University
d. a Republican state senator in Arizona
e. a politically radical councilwoman for a middle-sized New York city
Our ranking: (c), (a), (b) = (d) = (e). You might point out that it is difficult to use standard
measurements of the effects of economic policies in some locations.
4-38
71.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Whether Viking explorers actually landed in the New World before Columbus.
a. a historian
b. the publisher of a Norwegian-language newspaper in Willmar, Minnesota
c. a Norwegian archaeologist
d. an Italian archaeologist
e. an archaeologist of French ancestry who grew up in Texas
We take this one, including our ranking, lightly (although some Italians and some
Norwegians don’t): (e), (a), (c) = (d), (b).
72.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Whether it’s possible for a person to have an “out of body” experience.
a. a psychic
b. a physicist
c. a person who claims to have had such an experience
d. a physician
e. a philosopher
f. a magician
g. a psychologist
Our ranking: (e), then everybody else. None of the other sources has had experience or
training in what is possible. Were we evaluating the question of whether a given individual
had actually had such an experience, we’d have required a different ranking.
4-40
73.
For the following issue, discuss which source you’d trust more, and give at least one
reason why. You may want to add to or otherwise modify our list of sources. And do keep
in mind that we are glad our livelihoods do not depend on a general consensus on
our
rankings.
Issue: Were there unjustifiable cost overruns in the construction of ships made for the U.S.
Navy by Lytton Industries?
a. the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee
b. the accounting director for Lytton
c. the Navy Chief of Staff
d. the OMB (Office of Management and Budget)
e. an article in
The Progressive
(a left-of-center political journal)
Our ranking: (d), (a), depending on the individual’s politics, then (c) = (e), (b).