Chapter 04 Credibility Answer Key
Short Answer Questions
1.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“In the early 1800s, bears were a nuisance to settlers in upstate New York.”
—Smithsonian
Probably true.
2.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
NO CHOLESTEROL!
—Label on Crisco Corn Oil
Probably true. Vegetable oils do not contain cholesterol, and even if you didn’t know that,
such claims made by national brands are usually true (despite several famous exceptions).
3.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Mezzo-soprano Frederica von Stade’s two little girls always tried to keep her from singing
in church because, they said, every time she did, everyone would turn around and stare at
her.”
—Joseph McLellan, in the
Washington Post
Probably true.
4.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“By age 30, roughly a quarter of men and women have discernibly graying hair. Even so,
only 28 percent of us ever become completely white haired.”
—Lowell Ponte,
Reader’s Digest
Probably true.
5.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Enough is enough! A national survey finds a majority of American adults do not support
more restrictive or tougher anti-smoking measures.”
—The Tobacco Institute
Further documentation is needed here. Once upon a time this was probably true, but
things have changed since the clear connection between smoking and serious lung
disease has been established. We’ve noticed a large increase in anti-smoking sentiment in
some parts of the country; we expect that will continue.
6.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“In the near future look for floods in Britain which will culminate in the flooding of
Parliament.”
—A prediction made by Maitreya Swami, “The World Teacher,” in the
News Release of the
Tara Center
, N. Hollywood, Calif.
Probably false. We won’t get into the philosophical difficulties involved in attaching truth
values to future contingent events.
7.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Smoking more than triples the likelihood of premature facial wrinkling.”
—Dr. Donald Kadunce, lead author of a group of University of Utah scientists, reporting in
Annals of Internal Medicine
Probably true, but you’d probably want to have a look at the study to see, among other
things, how the degree of wrinkling is ascertained.
8.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
University student to professor: “I’m sorry I missed the test on Thursday, Dr. Aarsack. My
grandmother unexpectedly died, and I had to go home.”
Requires further documentation. This is a good discussion item, though the
straightforward answer is that more documentation is needed.
9.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“With due regard to the recent experience by certain individuals in the Russian city of
Voronezh, the Space Brothers who landed and exited from their craft were on a peace
mission…. What was thought to be and reported mistakenly as a knife held in the hand of
one of the Space Brothers was a thought, only in the mind of the reporter…. What was
being held was a communication device…. This device was translating the thoughts of the
Space voyager into the language that could be understood in that particular part of the
world.”
—Press release, Unarius Academy of Science
Probably false. So why was Space Brother even thinking of a knife?
10.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Driven by the Gramm-Rudman mandate to cut $46 billion from the budget…, OMB
director James Miller is proposing to sell off whole programs and agencies from the
federal establishment. Miller’s hit list is mostly secret for the time being, but
administration sources say it includes some large, costly and much-venerated legacies of
the Democratic past. One example: the Bonneville Power Administration, which provides
low-cost electricity to the Pacific Northwest from a far-flung system of hydroelectric dams
and substations, including the Grand Coulee Dam.”
—Newsweek
(during the Reagan administration in the late 1980s)
Probably true, since we would expect Newsweek to have good Washington sources in
such matters. But notice: What is it that’s probably true? The claim itself is quite vague.
What does “proposing” mean, for example?
11.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“A few years ago AT&T did two surveys showing that technically trained persons did not
achieve as many top managerial jobs in the company as liberal arts graduates did.”
—New York Times
Probably true. It is often risky to accept what secondhand reports say about what surveys
“show,” but the New York Times is a credible source. This claim is probably true. Note,
however, the vagueness of “did not achieve” and “top managerial jobs.”
12.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
According to Funk & Wagnalls Hammond World Atlas, the three longest rivers in the world
are the Nile, the Amazon, and the Yangtze.
Probably true; if you can’t trust your Funk & Wagnalls in a matter like this, whom can you
trust?
13.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Letter to the editor: “Your editorial page of October 15 contained a cartoon that was highly
offensive….”
—Midfield Sentinel
Probably true; the individual is the best authority on what he or she finds offensive.
14.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“General Motors is on a journey to the future. With the help of its thousands of scientists,
designers, and engineers, GM is embarking on an odyssey into the unknown. Roads paved
with scientific and technological wonders that might seem like science fictions. But at GM,
they’re reality….”
—From a General Motors magazine advertisement
Cannot properly be evaluated. This is too vague to make a judgment about. (In fairness to
the ad, we might note that a couple of later passages in it were less vague. But not much.
We might also point out that the odyssey on which GM was embarking was even more
unknown than its ad agency believed, as it required rescuing the company with a federal
bailout in 2009.)
15.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Comment from an acquaintance: “I saw Bigfoot with my own eyes! It was huge!”
Probably false; observational error is more likely than incorrect background information.
16.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Q: Did Marilyn Monroe keep a diary about her relationships with John and Robert
Kennedy?
A: No.
—Walter Scott’s Personality Parade,
Parade
Requires further documentation. Scott’s question-and-answer column is probably a
reasonably reliable source of information about the questions asked. Secret diaries are
always
a possibility, of course.
17.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Remark heard in a coffee shop: “There is a disproportionate percentage of left-handed
people in politics.”
Requires further documentation. This claim would take much more authority before we’d
believe it. Much of this sort of casual conversation is based on anecdotal evidence. The
claim is also vague: What does the speaker mean by “politics?”
18.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Reported after a debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who were running for
the Democratic nomination for the presidency in 2008: “James Carville, a Clinton advisor
and supporter, declared his candidate the ‘winner’ in the debate, saying she’d made her
case more strongly.”
Cannot properly be evaluated. Absolutely unreliable for reasons of bias. We’d reserve
judgment.
19.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Warning: St. John [in the Virgin Islands] is very much a ‘cash only’ island. Most
restaurants and car rental agencies accept cash or travelers checks only.”
—Janet Fullwood, travel writer for the
Dallas Times Herald
Probably true.
20.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Every day 5,000 Americans try cocaine for the first time—a total of 22 million so far—
according to estimates by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. About five million people
are believed to be using the drug at least once a month, and they are administering it to
themselves in increasingly destructive ways.”
—James Lieber, in the
Atlantic
Requires further documentation. We don’t know much about the National Institute on Drug
Abuse, but we have found the Atlantic to be pretty reliable in factual matters. Notice that
no exact figures are claimed; the first is explicitly said to be an estimate, and the phrases
“about” and “believed to be” qualify the second. We would expect these claims to be close
to the truth.
21.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
You’ve taken your car in to the local branch of a nationwide chain of brake and muffler
shops for an advertised “free brake inspection.” After the inspection, the service manager
tells you: “I’m afraid your linings are almost completely gone and the drums need turning.
You need a complete brake overhaul.”
Probably true, but with reservations. The shop is clearly an interested party, but the fact
that the brake shop is part of a nationwide chain means there would be someone beyond
the service manager to complain to if you discovered the service report was dishonest.
However, unless you’ve been having problems with your brakes or have verified the
service report by your own visual inspection, you should get a second opinion in a case like
this. Brake inspections are widely offered free or for a small charge.
22.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“[Atmospheric nuclear] tests do not seriously endanger either present or future
generations.”
—Edward Teller, physicist, one of the “fathers” of the atomic bomb, 1958
Requires further documentation. We’d expect this kind of claim, coming from such a
source, to be trustworthy. That it turned out to be false probably shows either that Teller
was biased or that there was not enough information on the effects of atmospheric tests
23.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Do you feel insecure? Or are you confident about your position in life? According to Dr.
Ian Cameron, how and where you stand in an elevator will reveal the answers to these
questions.”
—Reported in the
National Examiner
. Dr. Cameron is described in the article as “a noted
scientist and researcher.”
Cannot properly be evaluated. Is this remark the conclusion of a study? A speculation on
the part of Dr. Cameron? Who is Dr. Cameron, anyway? We are suspicious because so
little information is given about him. More importantly, the claim runs counter to our
background information. Our experience indicates that when we are free to choose where
we stand in an elevator, our choice is affected by whether we must push the elevator
buttons, how many other people are in the elevator, how close our destination floor is, and
so on. We don’t think very much can be determined about one’s personality by observing
how and where he or she stands in an elevator.
24.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
From a letter to the editor by a person we’ve never heard of: “Eighty-five percent of the jail
population smokes.”
Requires further documentation. What’s meant by “jail population” is a bit vague; we
presume the letter is talking about inmates. We find the claim plausible—at least we
would not be surprised if it were true. This plausibility is inherent in the claim; it is not due
to the fact that any particular person made it, especially since no source information is
provided.
25.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“In the history books, the personal-computer slump of 1985 will be a footnote compared to
the Japanese assault on the American semiconductor industry.”
—Newsweek
Probably true, at the time. But it hasn’t happened as of yet (twenty-six years later as of
this writing).
26.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“The West German Cabinet has conditionally agreed to let private companies enroll in the
research [on the Strategic Defense Initiative].”
—From an editorial in the
Los Angeles Times
Probably true.
27.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“The yearly cancer rate for men in Glasgow, Scotland, is 130 cases per 100,000.”
—“Atlas of Cancer in Scotland,” World Health Organization (an agency of the United
Nations)
Probably true.
28.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“My cat has fewer brains than a hubcap!”
—Spoken by one of the authors of the text after his cat had spent three days on his
housetop
Probably false, but only probably.
29.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“The American word ‘yup’ means ‘sex’ in Russia.”
—Comedian Yakov Smirnoff (who was born and lived in Russia for sixteen years before
emigrating to America in 1977). Smirnoff uses the claim in question as a basis for “yuppie”
jokes.
Probably true.
30.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“The past year was a turbulent one. It was a year that began with record profits and sales.
It was also a year in which we reported the first quarterly loss in Apple’s history. We had
to take swift action. We did. And it’s working.”
—Apple Computer Inc., 1985
Annual Report
Probably true. The remarks about profits, sales, and a quarterly loss are probably true;
they are easily investigated. The remarks about taking swift action and that the actions
taken are “working” are vague enough to be difficult to evaluate, although after the iPod
and iPhone were introduced, it was clear that Apple was doing very well indeed.
31.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
According to a Baron Gottfried von Swieten, King Frederick of Prussia claimed that he had
once given a chromatic theme to Johann Sebastian Bach, who had immediately made of it
a fugue in four parts, then in five parts, and finally in eight parts.
—From H. T. David and A. Mendel, The Bach Reader, reported in
Gödel, Escher, Bach
, by
Douglas R. Hofstadter
Probably false. One needs to know something of music to realize how incredible this
remark is. To improvise a six-part fugue is nearly beyond imagination (Hofstadter likens it
to playing sixty games of chess simultaneously while blindfolded and winning them all).
Even Bach, whose genius strains credibility on many counts, is unlikely to have been able
to improvise an eight-part fugue. Presumably either King Frederick or the good Baron was
doing some exaggerating.
32.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Apple’s history is more like a soap opera than a corporate biography.”
—
Macworld
magazine, March 1997
Probably true. We’re tempted to give this a straightforward “probably true,” both because
of what is common knowledge about Apple Computer and because of the general
trustworthiness of the magazine (one of the two major ones devoted to Macintosh users).
But obviously, the comparison here is extraordinarily vague—and this is the most
important thing to say about this quotation.
33.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
Huddie Ledbetter (“Leadbelly”) was not only a writer and performer of songs but also an
unusually powerful man. Alan Lomax, the historian of American folk music, wrote that “in
the Texas Penitentiary he was the number one man in the number one gang on the
number one farm in the state—the man who could carry the lead row in the field for 12 or
14 hours a day under the broiling July and August sun.” He could pick a bale of cotton in a
day—that’s 500 pounds!
—Adapted from liner notes to the record
Leadbelly
(Everest recording FS-202)
Probably true. We find this more likely to be true than the item concerning Bach and an
improvised six-part fugue, but one should be warned that claims like this are subject to
exaggeration, especially over time. (Legends tend to grow after their subjects are gone.)
No source is given for the last claim in the passage, but Lomax knew Ledbetter and
probably had at least some firsthand information about his physical prowess.
34.
Assess the following as probably true, as probably false, as requiring further
documentation before judgment, or as a claim that cannot properly be evaluated. Consider
both the nature of the claim and the source.
“Of all species, only pigs and humans like liquor.”
—Charles Halsted, Professor of Internal Medicine, University of California, Davis
Requires further documentation. We’d ordinarily accept this claim as probably true, if it
were not for the fact that Moore once had a dog that loved to lick the tops of wine bottles.
And many people have seen or heard of dogs lapping up beer.