that are occurring, changes related to the supply of raw materials, and other issues that
could affect strategic directions. Such information is legally and ethically obtained from a
wide range of sources using formalized techniques and can be factored into decision
making, e.g., to support the application of the “five-forces” model or other frameworks for
developing strategy (Burgelman, 193-214).
Scenario planning and forecasting helps planners deal with an uncertain future by
providing a mechanism for envisioning a range of future scenarios, examine the possible
impacts of them, develop a common view of the changing world, and prepare for it.
Scenarios sometimes are best used not as a basis for strategy, but as a way to improve how
managers do it. For a classic example of how Royal Dutch/Shell used scenario planning
and was prepared for the eventuality, if not the timing, of the oil crisis of 1973.
Capital planning and budgeting is the process by which unit managers (e.g., division
directors) propose individual projects up the hierarchy for approval. This usually involves
cost/benefit assessment of each proposal (combined into a return-on-investment measure),
allowing senior managers to compare and rank them, and accept only as many as the
capital funding allows. This is sometimes called “bottom-up” strategic planning. Most
proposals with sponsorship from a division director have more or less free passage (a
“rubber stamp”), that the analysis is rarely unbiased, and that the hard-to-quantify costs
and benefits are excluded (Harrison, St. John, 44-59).
Portfolio analysis is a technique, similar in some respects to capital budgeting but usually
at the business rather than project level, used to examine the relative value of the various
businesses, subsidiaries, or other units within a company, and to determine if a balanced
“mix” has been achieved. This helps corporate-level planners reach a better understanding
of the competitive position of the overall portfolio of businesses, to suggest strategic
alternatives for the businesses, to understand the value of acquiring new businesses, and,
overall, to develop priorities for resource allocation. Often, this is done through use of
portfolio matrices, a set of graphic displays that help managers visualize the portfolio