©2013 O.S. Financial Trading System
Assignment 1.2: Understanding Analyst Earnings’ Forecasts using Common Size Analysis
Introduction
Income forecasts from financial analysts have a profound impact upon management and the decisions
they make. This is because earnings’ season not only affects the fortunes of investors but also the
success or failure of the management being rated. In turn, the financial analyst industry has become
increasingly competitive and is also subjected to close scrutiny from the popular financial press (e.g., the
current Bloomberg ratings provided on the course blackboard with assignment 4).
In this assignment you will start with the consensus sales forecast numbers as your “top line” from
which you will make your own earnings forecasts for Apple’s 2013 and 2014 earnings and diluted
earnings per share. The consensus forecast sales numbers are provided in Appendix 1 (the same as
provided in the lecture), common size analysis and related information is provided in Appendix 2,
Porters’ 5-Forces is summarized in Appendix 3, and an extended common size analysis is provided in
Appendix 4.
Required
1. Using the latest year’s common size analysis (2012), forecast earnings and diluted earnings per
share for Apple 2013 and 2014. Be sure to provide what the scale of your numbers is (i.e.,
millions, billions or whatever scale you choose to work with).
2. Compare this projection to the consensus analyst forecasts comment and provide brief support
whether your forecasts are consistent or not with the analyst consensus.
3. Refer to Appendix 3. This appendix provides Michael Porter’s analysis of Competitive Intensity
and its impact upon profits. Apply Porter’s conceptual framework to reassess your common size
analysis for Apple in 1. above. Based upon this analysis identify which common size year(s) you
view to be more relevant for forecasting Apple’s earnings from for 2013 and 2014. Again
provide brief reasons in support of your answer.
4. Given your answer to part 3. repeat part 1. to make the best forecast you can. Given your
forecast do you expect Apple to meet, beat or fall short of the current consensus analyst
forecasts for 2013 and 2014? – (Provide brief reasons in support of your answer).
Keep within 3 pages for your answers to the above four parts.