The value of the portfolio is either
the value of the portfolio is certain to be 22.5. For this value of
the portfolio is therefore
riskless. The current value of the portfolio is
where f is the value of the option. Since the portfolio must earn the risk-free rate of interest
(40 0 5 ) 1 02 22 5f + =
i.e., the value of the option is $2.06.
This can also be calculated using risk-neutral valuation. Suppose that
is the probability of
an upward stock price movement in a risk-neutral world. We must have
45 35(1 ) 40 1 02pp+ − =
The expected value of the option in a risk-neutral world is:
0 0 58 5 0 42 2 10 + =
This has a present value of
This is consistent with the no-arbitrage answer.
Problem 12.12.
A stock price is currently $50. Over each of the next two three-month periods it is expected to
go up by 6% or down by 5%. The risk-free interest rate is 5% per annum with continuous
compounding. What is the value of a six-month European call option with a strike price of
$51?
A tree describing the behavior of the stock price is shown in Figure S12.1. The risk-neutral
probability of an up move, p, is given by
0 05 3 12 0 95 0 5689
1 06 0 95
e
p −
= =
−
There is a payoff from the option of
for the highest final node (which
corresponds to two up moves) zero in all other cases. The value of the option is therefore
2 0 05 6 12
5 18 0 5689 1 635e−
=
This can also be calculated by working back through the tree as indicated in Figure S12.1.
The value of the call option is the lower number at each node in the figure.