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capital, where total capital is defined as long-term debt, preferred stock, and equity. This exhibit
clearly shows that market-value and book-value debt-to-capital ratios are most of the time not the
same. In some periods, book-value ratios exceed market-value ratios; in other periods, the opposite
is true.
If we focus only on book values, we can see that debt levels were relatively high during the
1930s. They declined during World War II but have risen fairly consistently since the end of the
war. Since 1970, however, the trend seems to have leveled off when compared with some earlier
periods, although the debt level is at an historical high. In terms of market values, we find wide
variations in debt-to-capital ratios over the last 60 years. One thing to note is the correlation
between the stock market and the debt-to-capital ratios. Major stock market declines occurred
from 1929 through the early 1930s and then again in the mid-1970s. It is during these same
periods that we see the market-value debt-to-capital ratios at their highest levels. Overall, we can
see that, although 1986 found book-value ratios of debt levels at an historical high point, market
values were still lower than those found in the early 1970s. Long-term debt levels are apparently at
relatively high levels both in terms of book and market values.
Exhibit 2 presents market-value-based estimates of debt-to-asset ratios for different
industries over various time periods. We can see differences across industries–printing &
publishing with a low debt-to-asset ratio of 15.9% in 1986, and utilities with a high debt-to-asset
ratio of 48.6% in 1986. The ratios also vary over time. For example, the debt to asset ratio of
textiles goes from 44.2% during 1969-74 up to 54.6% in 1975-80 and then down to 38.4% in 1981-
86. Overall, the variability across industries is great; the variability over time is less.
Exhibits 3 and 4 show the distribution of market-value-based estimates of debt-to-capital
ratios within two selected industries for 1988. Exhibit 3, the distribution for retail stores, exhibits
some clustering at the lower end, but the debt-to-capital ratios are still fairly uniformly distributed
between 5% and 40%. For the 7 airlines shown in Exhibit 4, the debt-to-capital ratios are less
varied than for the retail stores. Of the 7, 4 have ratios in a narrow range of 40% to 50%. The two
exceptions are Delta and Pan Am, which are at the extremes of about 18% and about 71%,
respectively. Some questions can thus be raised about the capital structures of these firms. Does
Delta have too little debt? Does Pan Am have too much? We do not have enough information to
answer these questions, but clearly notions about industry averages do play an important role in
determining what is an appropriate level of debt.
What should one conclude from this historical perspective? First, capital structures do
change over time, whether they are measured in terms of book value or market value. In addition,
industries differ. Some industries, such as utilities, have relatively high debt ratios. Others, such as
printing and publishing, have low debt ratios. Even within industries, differences show up. These
differences make identifying how much debt is too much or what is an optimal capital structure
very difficult. There are, however, some basic relationships that affect the capital-structure
decision and, through it firm value.
This document is authorized for use only in Prof. Samveg Patel’s Corporate Finance / PGDM at Management Development Institute – Gurgaon from Jan 2023 to Apr 2023.