EurAsian Journal of BioSciences 14: 301-307 (2020) Medeu et al.
RESEARCH METHODS
To assess the anthropogenic load, a method has
been developed based on the complex application of
various techniques, with a detailed study of the state of
irrevocable water consumption in economic sectors,
which in general can be combined into two groups
(Koronkevich and Zaitseva 2003, Water resources of
Russia and their use 2008, Voskresensky et al. 1974,
Vodogretsky 1974, Vodogretsky 1979, Shiklomanov
1976, Shiklomanov 1989, 2004, UN/WMO/SEI 1997):
1) Statistical methods – based on a joint analysis of
long-term flow fluctuations and natural factors, as well
as the dynamics of economic activity in the basin;
The methods of the first group include techniques
and methods for restoring natural flow for a period with
a disturbed water regime using regression equations
that relate the amount of flow in the range under
consideration:
– with the flow of one or a group of analogous rivers
whose regime is in a natural state;
– with the flow of the basin area that has not been
changed by economic activity or private areas of the
basin;
– with meteorological factors.
The restored series is compared with the actual ones
and on the basis of this, the change in river flow caused
by economic activity is detected and evaluated.
2) Water balance method – calculations are
reliable scenarios for the long-term impact of
anthropogenic loads on water resources in the future.
At the first stage, an assessment of anthropogenic
changes in river flow was made for the main reference
points of observations based on the method of
hydrological analogy (Table 1). The method gives quite
reliable results, although they are integral values of
changes and are limited for evaluating the role of
individual industries or types of economic activity. These
results, as the most reliable, will be used as control
materials for further detailing of anthropogenic changes.
According to the results of Table 1, the largest changes
occurred in the Aral-Syrdarya, Balkash-Alakol, Ertis,
Shu-Talas, the smallest – in the Esil, Nura-Sarysu water
management basins (hereinafter WMB), which is quite
consistent with the level of water resources development
in Kazakhstan.
According to Table 1, the total anthropogenic
impacts of the main river in the basin are recorded in
each WMB in the final AC.
Fig. 1 graphically shows the anthropogenic load on
water resources relative to total and local water
resources in different by water content years for 8 WMB.
Local resources here refer to river flow and annually
renewable river flow in the territory, while the total
resource also includes tributaries from neighboring
countries and actual inter-basin transfers of river flow.
For all the main rivers of the RK WMB within the